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Miteduterms project uncertainty management management

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Unformatted text preview: y multiplied by the consequence. Opportunity Possible positive outcome expressed by probability multiplied by the consequence. From risk management towards uncertainty management Chapman and Ward (2002) [7], defines Uncertainty, “lack of certainty, involving variability and ambiguity”. Variability, “uncertainty about the size of parameters which may result from lack of data, lack of detail, lack of definition, lack of experience and so on, which may be quantified if this is useful” Ambiguity, “the aspects of uncertainty not addressed in terms of variability” Risk, “an implication of significant uncertainty which may be upside (welcome) or downside unwelcome” The Room of Uncertainty The Precautionary strategies Uncertainty Leverage strategies Risk based strategies Dynamic Complexity Ambiguity Trustworthiness strategies Success factors Uncertainty Management Challenges and corresponding Strategies Dimensions of project complexity Size: Number of elements Structural Complexity Interdependence Interactions in complex Ways: total is more than Sum of the parts of elements Project Complexity Uncertainty in goals Uncertainty Uncertainty in methods Structural complexity compounded by uncertainty Project Organization and Contracts Project Uncertainty management Uncertainty Uncertainty management in projects is a project management Uncertainty knowledge area comprising management and control of risks and comprising opportunities in the project. Uncertainty management is divided into risk management and Uncertainty divided opportunity management. Risk management Risk A continuous process to identify, analyse and follow up uncertainties continuous which can lead to negative impacts on the project by implementing response actions to avoid risks jeopardizing a successful completion of the project. Opportunity management Opportunity A continuous process to identify, analyse and follow up uncertainties continuous which can lead to positive impacts on the project by implementing response actions to benefit from the opportunities. Project Organization and Contracts Contracts Uncertainty Management Process Uncertainty Uncertainty identification Uncertainty response control Continuous process Uncertainty response actions Uncertainty assessment Project Organization and Contracts Contracts Major Decision Gates Uncertainty identification workshop Uncertainty management Continuous process Early Estimates Uncertainty analysis Final experience transfer and project close-out Budget Ad-hoc uncertainty analysis can be initiated within a number of areas throughout the project phases The classical project management techniques and uncertainty management uncertainty Unsuitable in complex and dynamic Unsuitable project environments Unattended schedule dynamics not Unattended adequatly attended Limited capabilities to interfaces Limited Focused on lag instead of lead indicators Focused An alternative approach An (Project uncertainty management) A dual approach using conventional dual techniques and planning abstractions Planning windows Planning Milestone structures Milestone Interface management system Interface Critical success factors and lead Critical indicators Project Organization and Contracts Contracts Planning and Control Structure Window abstraction Window Project Management- Uncertainty management Performance measurement and control Uncertainty Management Window abstraction Planning and control levels Project network multiple projects Network abstraction Interface schedules Planning windows Milestone structure/success criteria Work processes PLANNING WINDOW PLANNING Business Model Owner Values (forces) Success Criteria Contractors Value creation Planning Window Suppliers Community Emergent situations Project Organization and Contracts Contracts RPM process (Generic, 8 stages) RPM Conceive 1 Ref: Project Risk Management Processes, Techniques and Insights Design 2 Chris Chapman and Stephan Ward, (1997), Wiley Plan 3 Allocate 4 Steps and roles for uncertainty management Execute 5 Deliver 6 Review and Support 7&8 Project Organization and Contracts Contracts The Six Ws The Ws Some key components of a risk model Some Who, Parties Why, Motives What, Design Which way, Activities Wherewithal, Resources When, Timetable Project Organization and Contracts Contracts Risk Management Process (RPM) (Phased structure comparison) APM UK MoD (1991) CERT (Chapan, 1979) Define Focus Identify Structure Ownership Estimate Evaluate Plan Manage Initiation Identification Analysis Planning Management Scope Structure Parameter Manipulation and interpretation...
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