Q who is more likely to guess entire week correctly

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Unformatted text preview: s sequence and chooses the position randomly. Q. Who is more likely to guess entire week correctly? Albert? Carson? Or Betty? NUS/FOS/DSAP Lecture 12 – 4 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 2, 2010/2011 How to Calculate with Probabilities Example... Buses Tend to be Late (continued) For Betty… she guesses T, she will be correct if the bus arrives on time. That is, 60% of chance for Betty to be correct on each day. So, chance for Betty to be correct on the entire week is (0.6)5 NUS/FOS/DSAP Lecture 12 – 5 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 2, 2010/2011 How to Calculate with Probabilities Example... Buses Tend to be Late (continued) For Carson… he will be correct if he guesses T and the bus is on time, or if he guesses L and the bus is late. So the chance for him to be correct on each day would be 0.6 × 0.6 + 0.4 × 0.4 = 0.52 So, chance for him to be correct for the entire week would be (0.52)5 For Albert…chance to guess the entire week correctly would be (0.6)3 × (0.4)2 NUS/FOS/DSAP Lecture 12 – 6 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 2, 2010/2011 How to Calculate with Probabilities √ After going through examples on ‘guessing strategies’, let’s move on with calculating probabilities of finding match. √ In lecture 10, we have gone through some examples, birthday and inverse birthday problems, regarding finding ‘match’. Let’s re-visit the two examples and examine the connection. NUS/FOS/DSAP Lecture 12 – 7 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 2, 2010/2011 How to Calculate with Probabilities √ In birthday problem, we have greater than 50% chance of finding at least one matching birthday when n1 = 23 people. P(at least two people sharing the same birthday among 23 people) = 1− 365 × 364 × ... × ( 365 − 23 + 1) 365 ×...
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This note was uploaded on 05/19/2011 for the course STAT 2900 taught by Professor Chenpeiyi during the Spring '11 term at National University of Singapore.

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