BSOP 330 Week 2_Course Project Part 1of3_Data

BSOP 330 Week 2_Course Project Part 1of3_Data - Forecasting...

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Forecasting Trend line & Predicted Sales Problem 5: Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Year Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 2000 180,400 1 172,781 7619.04762 7619.04762 58049887 04.22% 2001 177,500 2 183,775 -6275.2381 6275.2381 39378613 03.54% 2002 189,500 3 194,770 -5269.5238 5269.52381 27767881 02.78% 2003 205,900 4 205,764 136.190476 136.190476 18547.8458 00.07% 2004 219,300 5 216,758 2541.90476 2541.90476 6461279.82 01.16% 2005 229,000 6 227,752 1247.61905 1247.61905 1556553.29 00.54% 2006 7 238,747 -238746.67 238746.667 5.70E+010 #DIV/0! 2007 8 249,741 -249741 249740.952 6.24E+010 #DIV/0! Total 8.731E-011 23089.5238 133232762 12.31% Intercept 161786.6667 Average 1.455E-011 3848.25397 22205460 02.05% Slope 10994.28571 Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 5771.32485 2007 249,741 8 Correlation 0.96992104 Use the sales data given below to determine: (a) the least squares trend line , and (b) the predicted value for 2003 sales . To minimize computations, transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers. In this case, designate year 1996 as year 1, 1997 as year 2, etc. (a) see chart (b) 173 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 150,000 175,000 200,000 225,000 250,000 275,000 180,400 177,500 189,500 205,900 219,300 229,000 172,781 183,775 194,770 205,764 216,758 227,752 238,747 249,741 f(x) = 10994.2857142857x + 161786.666666667 Column B Linear Regression for Column B Column E ATTENDANCE Y E A R
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Forecasting Trend line & Predicted Sales Problem 5: Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Year Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 2000 37,100 1 34,448 2652.38095 2652.38095 7035124.72 07.15% 2001 36,200 2 36,782 -581.90476 581.904762 338613.152 01.61% 2002 34,700 3 39,116 -4416.1905 4416.19048 19502738 12.73% 2003 42,700 4 41,450 1249.52381 1249.52381 1561309.75 02.93% 2004 43,600 5 43,785 -184.7619 184.761905 34136.9615 00.42% 2005 47,400 6 46,119 1280.95238 1280.95238 1640839 02.70% 2006 7 48,453 -48453.333 48453.3333 2.35E+009 #DIV/0! 2007 8 50,788 -50787.619 50787.619 2.58E+009 #DIV/0! Total -1.46E-011 10365.7143 30112762 27.54% Intercept 32113.33333 Average -2.43E-012 1727.61905 5018793.65 04.59% Slope 2334.285714 Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 2743.75481 2007 50,788 8 Correlation 0.87177813 Use the sales data given below to determine:
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