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CHAPTER 0a lecture notes - CHAPTER Duxbury Thomson Learning...

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• A. J. Clark School of Engineering •Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Third Edition CHAPTER 0a Making Hard Decision Duxbury Thomson Learning ENCE 627 – Decision Analysis for Engineering Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maryland, College Park Introduction to Decision Analysis for Engineering FALL 2003 By Dr . Ibrahim. Assakkaf CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Slide No. 1 ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf Dr. Ibrahim A. Assakkaf Center for Technology and Systems and Management Department of Civil Engineering University of Maryland 0305 Glenn L. Martin Hall (EGR) College Park, MD 20742 Tel: (301) 405-3279 UMCP Fax: (301) 405- 2585 UMCP Office Hours: Tu W 1:00 am - 3:00 pm F 2:30 noon -4:30 pm, and by appointment E-mail: [email protected] URL: http://ctsm.umd.edu/assakkaf Instructor
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CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Slide No. 2 ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf Textbook Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools ,” by Robert T. Clemen and Terence Reilly, 2nd edition (revised), Duxbury Press, NY, 2001. CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Slide No. 3 ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf References 1. “Decision Making and Forecasting,” by Marshall, K. T. and Oliver, R. M., McGraw Hill, NY, 1995. 2. “Statistics and Reliability for Engineers,” by Ayyub, B.M., and McCuen, R., CRC Press, FL, 1997. 3. “Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design,” Volume II, by Ang, and Tang , John Wiley and Sons, NY, 1975. 4. Instructor’s notes.
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CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Slide No. 4 ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf Grading Homework (25%) Project (25%) Midterm Exam (25%) Final Exam (25%) CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Slide No. 5 ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf General Course Description Probability basics, subjective probability, using data, introduction to decision analysis, elements of decision problems, structuring decisions, making choices, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, value of information, risk-based decision making, multiobjective problems, stochastic dynamic programming. Applications in engineering and economics.
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CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING
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