CHAPTER 0a lecture notes

To help a decision maker think systematically about

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Unformatted text preview: f 3. To help a decision-maker think systematically about complex problems and improve the quality of the resulting decisions. 4. To help a decision-maker think hard about the specific problem at hand, including the overall structure of the problem as well as his or her preferences and beliefs. CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Course Objectives Slide No. 9 ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf 5. Provide both an overall paradigm and a set of tools (influence diagrams and decision trees) with which a decisionmaker can construct and analyze a model of a decision situation. 6. Provide the framework within which a decision-maker can construct a requisite decision model. 5 Slide No. 10 CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Course Outline ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf The course will include the following main items: 1. Introduction to Decision Analysis 2. Modeling Uncertainty: Probability 3. Using Data 4. Decision Models and Analysis 5. Model Building: Influence Diagrams 6. Model Building: Decision Trees 7. Making Choices and Sensitivity Analysis 8. Creativity and Decision Analysis 9. Monte Carlo Simulation 10. Value of Information 11. Multiattribute Decision Making Slide No. 11 CHAPTER 0a. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS FOR ENGINEERING Course Objectives ENCE 627 ©Assakkaf 7. To be able to represent real-world problems with associated uncertainties. 8. To be able distinguish between a good decision and a lucky outcome. 6 CH...
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This note was uploaded on 10/24/2012 for the course ESI 6385 taught by Professor Mansoorehmollaghasemi during the Fall '12 term at University of Central Florida.

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