gdi-2011-politics-master-file-mercury

North korea has a reforming economy that is very weak

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Unformatted text preview: ion against South Korea would involve not a full-scale invasion but rather asymmetric attempts to destabilize or disrupt the South Korean economy and political life. These attempts could include small-scale incursions by special forces and terrorist bombings, among other possibilities. The priorities of the North Korean leadership may be assessed by answering the following questions: Does Pyongyang favor regime survival first? Does Pyongyang above all favor unification or destabilization of South Korea? The decision to pursue an “aggressive” or “expansionist” goal is actually composed of three separate calculations: the value of the prize, the costs that will be paid for that prize, and the probability of success. Although North Korea might quite highly value the goal of pursuing asymmetric attacks against South Korea, in order to argue that North Korea actually poses a threat to South Korea requires convincing proof that North Korea positively evaluates all three conditions. As the South Korean government has become more legitimate and stable over the past two decades, North Korea has not attempted political destabilization through terrorism. The most likely reason for this lack of asymmetric warfare, and for the improbability that such warfare would develop even without a U.S.ROK alliance, is the North Korean leadership’s realization that such actions could backfire and unify the South Korean public in opposition to North Korea. As long as North Korea remains weaker both militarily and economically than South Korea and continues to fall farther behind, most standard international relations theories would predict that North Korea can be deterred.32 The South Korean military is modernizing and outspending North Korea’s military by every measure, and the gap between the two militaries in terms of capability, quality, and training continues to widen. Based on material capabilities, South Korea, even without the United States, should be able to deter North Korean aggression. Even though Pyongyang’s threat perception would likely decrease, North Korea would not be in a position to contemplate offensive actions against South Korea. Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011 56 Mercury Politics Impact Answer – No Conflict (2/2) South Korea and China wouldn’t consider war- they both strongly encourage peace. Kang, Dartmouth Government Professor, 08 (David C., Professor in the Government department and Adjunct Professor at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, January 2008, “Inter-Korean Relations in the Absence of a U.S.-ROK Alliance”, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/asia_policy/v005/5.kang.html, p. 37, Accessed 7.6.11, SWolff) Beijing appears to desire, first and foremost, stability on China’s borders and, secondly, North Korean economic reform that follows a Chinese model.38 Millions of refugees flooding northern China would present major social and political problems for China as well as potentially derail China’s economic development. Furthermore, war—or even turmoil on China’s northern border—would also distract Beijing from China’s ot...
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This note was uploaded on 01/14/2013 for the course POL 090 taught by Professor Framer during the Spring '13 term at Shimer.

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