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Unformatted text preview: in North Korea, and avoiding a costly collapse of the regime. Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011
Politics Impact Answer – AT – SKFTA Key to Econ
KORUS has a far less predicted impact on the economy, their claims are hyperbolic
Eun-joo, The Hankyoreh columnist, 7/4/11
(Jung, 4 July 2011, “U.S. KORUS FTA export estimates far exceeds S.Korea’s”,
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/485711.html , 7.6.11, SWolff)
U.S. analysts are predicting an average annual rise of $1.9 billion (approximately 2.1 trillion won) in
exports of U.S. agricultural products to South Korea after the South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
(KORUS FTA) takes effect. This marks a full 5.2 times the $370 million predicted by South Korean
analysts. Questions are now being raised about whether the government conducted an accurate
analysis of the economic effects of the FTA and its damages to the agricultural and livestock sector.
According to analysis Sunday of a U.S. Department of Agriculture report published in April on the effects of
trade agreement on the U.S. agriculture industry, the U.S. predicted an average annual increase of $1.9
billion in exports of U.S. agricultural and livestock products to South Korea as South Korean tariffs
disappear and tariff-rate quota (TRQ) quantities increase when the KORUS FTA takes effect. This is 5.2
times the $370 million resulting increase estimated by the Korea Rural Economic Institute in April 2007, as
well as 3.1 times the estimated 669.8 billion won in reduced agricultural production. The South Korean
government has been using the KREI analysis of economic effects as a basis in formulating measures to
address damages. The USDA report predicted a major increase in exports of U.S. beef, pork, and dairy
product exports to South Korea after the FTA takes effect. An average increase of roughly $563 million per
year was predicted for U.S. beef with the uniform elimination of the 40 percent tariff over a fifteen-year
period, far exceeding the $518 million in 2010 U.S. beef imports. An annual increase of $276 million in U.S.
pork exports was predicted with the elimination of the 22.5 to 25 percent tariff. The analysis also predicted
an average annual increase of $93 million in imports of dairy products such as raw milk and cheese,
principally through TRQ imports. Observers say the 2 trillion won increase in exports predicted by the
United States, which amounts to 7.4 percent of the 27 trillion won gross domestic product of the South
Korean agriculture, seafood, and livestock industry in 2010, appears likely to have a significant
negative impact on the domestic agricultural industry. Democratic Labor Party Lawmaker Kang Ki-kab
said, “The South Korean and U.S. governments are making entirely different predictions about the scale of
damages from the KORUS FTA.” “There are questions as to whether the government’s analysis of
economic effects was properly conducted,” Kang added. Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011
Politics Impact Answer – AT – SKFTA Key to Alliance
Failure to ratify SKFTA wouldn’t kill the alliance, we’re cooperating on too many levels....
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This note was uploaded on 01/14/2013 for the course POL 090 taught by Professor Framer during the Spring '13 term at Shimer.
- Spring '13