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Unformatted text preview: (O,M+1)+0.3*V(O+1,M) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4. Hence, ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) From the Excel spread sheet, we could see, the probability of Miami winning a 5, 7, 9, and 11 game series are: 83.69%, 87.40%, 90.12%, and 92.18%, respectively. 3. (Monte Hall problem): You don't.t know which of three closed doors has a prize behind it. You pick a door. Then Monte Hall (who does know which door has the prize) opens a door without a prize: if your door had the prize, he randomly opens one of the other doors, and if your door did not have the prize, he opens the only other door that does not have the prize. Then he asks you whether you want to switch doors, or stick with your original door. Assuming you want the prize, what should you do? Explain the odds. Solution: You should always switch to the other door. If the price is initially equally likely to be behind each door, a player who picks Door 1 and doesn't switch has a 1 in 3 chance of winning the prize while a player who picks Door 1 and does switch has a 2 in 3 chance. Mon...
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This note was uploaded on 01/20/2013 for the course ECON 251 taught by Professor Geanakoplos,john during the Spring '09 term at Yale.

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