This preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.
Unformatted text preview: 00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Transportation Key – China 300 Oil DDW 2012 1 Car use in developing countries increases oil dependence and emissions now
Bromley, Senior Lecturer in International Political Economy at the Open University, UK, et al., 06
Simon Bromley, Senior Lecturer in International Political Economy at the Open University, UK, et al., · Joshua Busby Nils Duquet ·
Leben Nelson Moro, 5-06, [“Climate Change and Collective Action: Troubles in the Transition to a Post-Oil Economy,” St Antony’s
http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/faculty/busby/wpcontent/uploads/busby_stair_2_1.pdf] E. Liu
Oil use is projected to grow by 57 percent worldwide between 2000 and 2025. By 2025, oil consumption is projected to be 119 million
barrels per day, up from 77 million barrels in 2001.13 While growth in Asian fuel demand is one source of this projected increase, 20
percent of that growth will be driven by rising u.s. demand, which is projected to grow by 44 percent between 2000 and 2025.14 The
percentage of oil the us imports is projected to rise from 53 percent in 2000 to 70 percent in 2025, compared to 66 percent for the
European Union (eu) and 100 percent for Japan.15 With only 9 percent of global production and 2 to 3 percent of global reserves, the
us will not be able to reverse this trend through expansion of domestic oil production.16 Surging petroleum consumption in fastgrowing countries in the developing world, particularly in China and India, rivals rising fuel demand in the us. The Indians and
Chinese currently have car ownership patterns like those in the us in 1915 .17 In the next quarter century, the number of vehicles
worldwide is projected to rise from 700 million to 1.3 billion; twenty percent of that increase in China alone.18 India, for its part, has a
middle class of 250 million people, but the country only has about 8 million passenger vehicles.19 China may overtake the us as the
world leader in fuel consumption and car ownership between 2020 and 2025.20 This growth in vehicles and fuel consumption, if
unchecked by fuel switching and technological change in the automotive industry, will contribute to greater greenhouse gas emissions.
Transportation was responsible for about 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, having grown 36 percent in the
1990s. The transportation sector was the fastest source of emissions growth in Europe and Japan and the second fastest source of
emissions growth for the us, India and China in the 1990s.21 Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have risen 35 percent
above pre-industrial levels, from 275 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to 375 ppmv. Without action to restrain emissions, they
could climb to 1,000 ppmv, nearly four times pre-industrial levels. It is unclear what effects this might have, though many analysts
counsel restraining emissions to no more than twice pre-industrial levels (550ppmv) to avoid the worst consequences.22 301
Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Transportation Key – LDV 3...
View Full Document
This note was uploaded on 01/30/2013 for the course ECON 101 taught by Professor Burke during the Spring '13 term at Southern Arkansas University.
- Spring '13
- The American, Saudi Arabia, Peak oil, Nuclear weapon, Oil prices