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Indeed, as U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, the leader of President Barack Obama ʼs push for a clean-energy economy, has asserted,
“What the U.S. and China do over the next decade will determine the fate of the world.”8 In particular, this study finds that that even
if the United States achieved 100 percent hybrid-like vehicles today, a conventional Chinese POV fleet would consume the destroyed
demand of the U.S. POV fleet around 2016. As Chinaʼs POV fleet continues to increase in size , its oil demand will rise to the point
that it will exceed whatever gains America can achieve with a move toward hybrid-like efficiency in its POV fleet. 285
Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1
Can’t Solve Oil – Vehicles 286 Oil DDW 2012 1 Chinese demand in vehicles is rising now – Cultural factors favor inefficient
Yetiv, University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University and Fowler 11
Steve A. Yetiv, University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University and Eric S. Fowler,
doctoral candidate in International Studies at Old Dominion University, 11, [“The Challenges of Decreasing Oil Consumption,”
Political Science Quarterly Volume 126 Number 2 2011, www.psqonline.org/article.cfm?IDArticle=18738] E. Liu
If it is critical for the United States to decrease oil consumption by its POV fleet in order to reverse its high consumption path, it is
equally important for China to take preemptive action now to put itself on the right consumption path. Chinaʼs current POV
consumption is much smaller than that of the United States and its POV fleet represents a smaller percentage of its overall fleet as
well, but the POV fleet is expected to grow rapidly as the income of Chinaʼs consumers increases. In fact, from 1990 through 2005,
POV sales in China alone grew at a rate of 21.8 percent per year,48whereas they grew only 1.5 percent in the United The POV fleet
will not only grow significantly, but unless measures that are far more serious prevail , it is probable that the percentage of inefficient
vehicles in the fleet will rise substantially. Indeed, China has taken notable measures to decrease oil demand, including more-rigorous
fuel economy standards on paper than exist in the United States, but the Chinese have been purchasing inefficient vehicles in
alarmingly large numbers. According to an August 2008 report appearing on the Vehicle Emission Control Center of China ʼs State
Environmental Protection Administration website, sales of gas-guzzlers in China are growing much faster than those of small cars.
Despite Chinaʼs efforts to address pollution, for example, its imports of SUVs in the first half of 2008 increased 79 percent to 108,500,
accounting for nearly half of the total imports. The growth rate also represents a rise of 41.5 percentage points over the previous
year.54 High demand exists for vehicles that project strength and material success .55The tendency toward larger vehicles among some...
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