50 a barrel in july 2008 to 3234 five months later

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Unformatted text preview: he system as a whole. 177 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 178 Oil DDW 2012 1 ***General Aff*** 179 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Non-Unique – Prices 180 Oil DDW 2012 1 Price drops inevitable – Euro debt and Middle East Scott Rose and Agnes Lovas, 2011, Putin Must Beat Own Economic Record As Russian Goldehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-21/putin-must-beat-his-own-economicrecord.html ‘Strong Improvement’ “He’s a leader that after Yeltsin brought Russia back to power and economic improvement,” Ganske said. “The Russians traded off the lack of free speech and democracy. The majority still believes in a strong leadership. There’s been a strong improvement in average living standards in the last 12 years under Putin.” Medvedev said in January that Russia should target growth of at least 8 percent annually within five years to keep up with the so-called BRIC countries, the largest emerging markets. Putin yesterday told a business lobby group that Russia would target expansion of 6 percent to 7 percent annually to make the economy one of the world’s five largest within five years. The goal is also to lift per capita GDP to more than $35,000 from about $20,700 and create 25 million “quality” jobs “from scratch,” Putin told the group. He also touted his economic record last week, including what he said was a 40 percent increase in pensions last year, in a 4 1/2-hour television program during which he answered questions from viewers around Russia. ‘Would Be Me’ Asked by a reporter after the call to use the skills he developed as a judo champion in the 1970s to identify his greatest challenger in the presidential poll, Putin said: “That would be me, probably.” Growth rates have slowed since a collapse in global oil prices pushed Russia’s Urals crude blend from $143.50 a barrel in July 2008 to $32.34 five months later. The economy contracted 7.8 percent in the following year. Urals crude is on track to average $109 a barrel this year, up from $78 last year and the previous record of $95 in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Russia may be benefiting from unrest in the Middle East that toppled leaders in Libya and Egypt and prompted Saudi Arabia to boost social spending to quell potential violence. Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even point jumped to $91 a barrel this year from $78 in 2010, Alia Moubayed, senior economist Barclays Capital, said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. “That obviously is related to the huge fiscal stimulus package that Saudi Arabia has put in place over the last year.” Euro Threat The sovereign-debt crisis in Europe threatens to reduce growth in the region, which accounted for 49 percent of Russian trade last year. Growth in China, which was responsible for another 9.5 percent, may slow to 8.5 percent in 2012, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Without the Middle East turmoil, oil could be about $70 a barrel, Ksenia Yudaeva, chief economist at OAO Sberbank (SBER), Russia’s largest lender, said in a telephone interview Dec. 14. Net capital flows out of Russia may top $80 billion this year, Alexei Ulyukayev, a centra...
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