78 213 last printed 942009 70000 pm oil ddw 2012 1 at

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Unformatted text preview: s, such as refugee flows and the emergence of havens for terrorism and organised crime, as in Afghanistan and Somalia. There is also the danger that where one state fails, another may move in, either formally or informally. These interventions may be motivated by a sense of threat (guerrillas using the territory of failed states as a base of refuge), or the sighting of an opportunity to grab territory and resources – both of which were factors in the numerous invasions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo by its neighbours since the mid 1990s.73 211 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 State Failure – Great Power Wars 212 Oil DDW 2012 1 Major powers can decline from energy too – Causes lash-out, prolif and great power war Elhefnawy, previously published on international and security issues in journals including Astropolitics, International Security and Parameters, Visiting Assistant Professor of Literature at the University of Miami, 08 Nader Elhefnawy, previously published on international and security issues in journals including Astropolitics, International Security and Parameters, Visiting Assistant Professor of Literature at the University of Miami, 3-25-08, [“The Impending Oil Shock,” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 50:2, 37-66, www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00396330802034242] E. Liu Smaller countries are not the only ones at risk. The failure of large but economically fragile states on the model of the Soviet collapse is conceivable, and even more problematic at the global level, given that their size compounds their problems, making them more difficult to bail out or prop up, and introducing problems that are not a consideration with smaller states, such as the proliferation of sophisticated weaponry. The moment before a large nation collapses is especially fraught with peril.77 The Soviet Union made surprisingly little effort to resist dissolution in 1991, but there is no certainty that the next great power to go this way will not flail about dangerously prior to collapse. Great-power conflict is not out of the question; it may even be the most likely cause of conflict in the future, particularly if crises bring radical ideologies to the fore.78 213 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 AT: Public Spending 214 Oil DDW 2012 1 Southwest Asian public spending is insufficient to maintain stability or growth Maloney, Senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 08 Suzanne Maloney, Senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, 12-5-08, [“The Gulf's Renewed Oil Wealth: Getting it Right This Time?,” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 50:6, 129-150, www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2008/12/gulf-oil-maloney] E. Liu The prospects for such a scenario are reinforced by the demographic realities that complicate the region’s internal challenges. Even with a new flood of cash, it is not clear that any Middle Eastern state beyond the tiniest Persian Gulf emirates can sustain the social contract that has underpinned the long-standing...
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