But russia will be around for many years after that

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Unformatted text preview: ize and doing so as fast as Russia can. Russia might not have to worry about oil prices this year, and maybe not even next year. But Russia will be around for many years after that and oil prices are not expected to rise forever. At some point, China growth will stabilize. That is actually happening now. India will stabilize. Europe will continue its move away from oil, as will the U.S. It’s demand will stabilize. That might not be the case for another five to 10 years, but Russia will still be on God’s green Earth and if the good Minister is correct in her assessment, and everyone who watches Russia closely knows she is, then Russia will be in for a long, cold winter despite its collection of cheap Gazprom gas. It’s not that Russia doesn’t have the brain power to get over its oil addiction. The government is investing millions in backing start-up entrepreneurs out of the newly created Skolkovo Iniative, a mini-Silicon Valley, or so it hopes, in the suburbs of Москва (that’s Moscow). It’s got the brain power and the tech talents to build a more innovative economy, but moves to do so are still in their infancy. Only very recently has Russian venture capital started to discover Russian entrepreneurs. Only recently have Russia’s biggest funds like Troika Dialog tried to tap the rich U.S. market to convince American institutional investors that Russian financial markets are worth investing in 18 Oil DDW 2012 1 Russia 1NC 19 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Russian economic decline spills over and sparks nuclear conflict David 99 [Steven, Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, “Internal War: Causes and Cures”, July, https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/world_politics/related/v049/49.4er_brown.html] If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause. From 1989 to the present, the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. In a society where, ten years ago, unemployment scarcely existed, it reached 9.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. Twenty-two percent of Russians live below the official poverty line (earning less than $ 70 a month). Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. Reformers tout privatization as the country's cure-all, but in a land without well-defined property rights or contract law and where subsidies remain a way of life, the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look remote at best. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political crisis show, Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. If conditions get worse, even the stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience. A future conflict would quickly draw in Russia's military. In the Soviet days civilian rule kept the powerful armed forces in check. But with the Communist Party out of office, what little civilian control remains relies on an exceedingly fragile fo...
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