But surely a structural realisation that oil will be

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Unformatted text preview: Rice University, 4/5-08, [“The Impending Oil Shock: An Exchange,” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 50:4, 61-82, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00396330802329048] E. Liu In sum, there are more alternative pathways and less reason to go to war over oil today than ever before. This is not to say that a major oil crisis couldn’t take place or, if it did, that it might not threaten the global trading system. But, surely, a structural realisation that oil will be running out could be planned for, given the fact that the international community has successfully managed unexpected, sudden losses in fuel on several occasions. Moreover, the United States’ experience, while perhaps lacking in comparison to that of some industrialised nations, is nonetheless a promising foundation for launching new, more effective policies. After the oil crises of the 1970s, oil use in several US sectors was greatly reduced through efficiency gains and fuel switching. Around a third of US homes were heated with oil in the early 1970s, compared to around 14% today. Moreover, oil was virtually removed as a fuel for electricity production in the United States. The United States has a wide array of fuels used for electricity generation, including coal, natural gas, hydroelectric, nuclear energy, geothermal, wind, biofuels and solar. We have learned that diversity of fuels creates flexibility, resilience and supplier temperance. This ability to generate electricity without recourse to oil is our greatest asset. The United States, if it embraces technologies to fuel automobiles with electricity, could do much to reduce its dependence on oil, since that electricity can be produced from many other fuels. Israel has already announced a nationwide experiment to embrace a national system for battery-powered cars. The State of California is looking at options to promote similar technology innovation. Currently, the transportation sector represents more than two-thirds of total US petroleum use and will generate more than 70% of the projected increase in US oil demand. The 2007 US energy bill recognises this, and even its lacklustre regulations for automobile-efficiency standards will eliminate more than 2.5m b/d of oil use by 2020. A technological breakthrough that would allow Americans to get 50 miles per gallon by 2020 would save over 6.6m b/d of oil, according to a study by the Baker Institute. 43 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Transportation is the only industry significantly dependent on oil Haug, former Director at the International Energy Agency (IEA), 11 Marianne Haug, former Director at the International Energy Agency (IEA), 11, [“Clean energy and international oil,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 27, Number 1, 2011, pp. 92–116, oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/1/92.abstract] E. Liu Despite the relatively low oil prices, oil did not regain lost market shares. Capital stock investments in industry, buildings, and power generation ‘locked in’ a new energy-use pattern. During the 1973–2008 period, oil’...
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This note was uploaded on 01/30/2013 for the course ECON 101 taught by Professor Burke during the Spring '13 term at Southern Arkansas University.

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