Fueldemandsdependontheenergyefficiencies eg the

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Unformatted text preview: research and investment. For example, successful delivery of a car that reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 70 percent and was market ready could approximate a best or better shot technology with spill-over benefits for the rest of society.79 294 Oil DDW 2012 1 Scenario Planning Good 295 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Scinerio planning is good Gosselin, professor at Ghent University and Leysen, professor at the Royal Military Academy, 08 Derrick Philippe GOSSELIN is professor at Ghent University. He is as well associate fellow of Green Templeton College and of James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization (Saïd Business School), both at the University of Oxford and Jan LEYSEN is professor at the Royal Military Academy 5-08, [“Vision of evolutions in the petroleum market,” European Review of Energy Marketsvolume 2, issue 3, May 2008, https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/416425] E. Liu An alternative method to econometric forecasting, one that can be used in complex situations where the past displays insufficient continuity to predict the future using extrapolation, is strategic scenario planning34 [44]. Econometric forecasting techniques are implicitly based on factors that are assumed to display continuity with the future. Indeed, this is a pre-condition for applying extrapolation with any degree of accuracy. The disadvantage of these techniques, therefore, is their assumption that the future displays a significant degree of continuity with the past and is thus more predictable than is actually the case. In contrast to econometric forecasting techniques, scenario planning does not aim to forecast the ‘correct’ or ‘probable’ future but rather aims, based on a thorough analysis, to arrive at a better and systematic understanding of the main factors that may shape the future. Because scenario planning is based on uncertainties formulated around strategic questions, it enables the future - or possible futures - to be examined in a more flexible way. Opportunities and risks can therefore be identified early on and discontinuous changes reacted to more quickly because the relationship between different developments is understood more immediately, based on a coherent and considered vision of the future. For a methodological discussion of scenario planning techniques, see the article by Bradfield, Wright, Burt, Cairns [45] and by Van Der Heijden [46]. 296 Oil DDW 2012 1 Solvency Slow 297 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Demand of fuels is sluggish – It takes decades for the plan to change consumption patterns Wirl, Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, University, 12 Franz Wirl, Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, University, 12, [“OPEC’s Strategies,” http://www.springerlink.com/content/w37411k763748224/] E. Liu Thirdly, demand and also the supply of fuels (and not only of oil) are characterized by substantial time constants ofadjustments.Fueldemandsdependontheenergyefficiencies. E.g., th...
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