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Unformatted text preview: e for meeting the new obligations Mr. Putin has taken on. Analysts worry that,
even if the government can fulfill its promises, too little will remain for a sovereign wealth fund that is intended as a shock
absorber for the Russian economy and the ruble exchange rate during an oil price slump. Russia needed to use that buffer as
recently as 2008, during the financial crisis. “The concern is simple,” Kingsmill Bond, the chief strategist at Citigroup in
Russia, said in a telephone interview. “If the oil price that Russia requires to balance its budget is higher, the systemic risks
that the market faces are also higher.” The bank estimated that Mr. Putin’s promises of higher wages and pensions, not
counting the military outlays, add up to additional spending equal to 1.5 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product. That
comes on top of an earlier pledge to spend an additional 3 percent of gross domestic product a year re-arming the military.
In all, the new commitments would add up to about $98 billion a year, Citigroup estimates. The spillover from the Arab
Spring and the specter of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear development plants are propping up oil prices now. But over the
long term, economic stagnation in Europe could help bring them down. Even before the election, Russia’s government
spending was up, helping reinforce Mr. Putin’s message that he was the best candidate to deliver prosperity and stability. In
January, the Russian military ministry, for example, doubled salaries in the nation’s million-person army. It was ostensibly a
long-planned move. But coming just two months before the presidential vote, the political message was clear. Also
smoothing the path for Mr. Putin’s victory was a national cap on utility rates that helped keep inflation at the lowest level in
Russia’s post-Soviet history for January and February, at a 3.7 percent annual pace. “Putin made large spending
commitments,” the Fitch rating agency said in a statement released the day after the election. “The current high price of oil
cushions Russia’s public finances,” Fitch said. “But in the absence of fiscal tightening that significantly cuts the non-oil and
gas fiscal deficit, a severe and sustained drop in the oil price would have a damaging impact on the Russian economy and
public finances and would likely lead to a downgrade” of the nation’s credit rating. As Mr. Putin’s spending promises
started to be introduced in January, Fitch altered Russia’s outlook to stable, from positive. 148 Oil DDW 2012 1 Oil Key – Russia Econ 149
Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 The Russian economy is dependent on oil for revenues now
Gosselin, professor at Ghent University and Leysen, professor at the Royal Military Academy, 08
Derrick Philippe GOSSELIN is professor at Ghent University. He is as well associate fellow of Green Templeton College and of
James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization (Saïd Business School), both at the University of Oxford and Jan LEYSEN is
professor at the Royal Military Academy 5-08, [“Vision of evolutions in the petroleum market,”...
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This note was uploaded on 01/30/2013 for the course ECON 101 taught by Professor Burke during the Spring '13 term at Southern Arkansas University.
- Spring '13
- The American, Saudi Arabia, Peak oil, Nuclear weapon, Oil prices