Millions of people from the caucasus central asia and

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Unformatted text preview: ership in international economic organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). As a major oil producer and exporter, Russia influences world oil prices that affect U.S. consumers. 161 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 162 Oil DDW 2012 1 Impact – Euro Migration 163 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Russian economic competetiveness is critical to regional stability – Russia is the population safety valve Hill, 2006, Moscow Discovers Soft Power, [Fiona Hill, contributro to foreign policy http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/15/how_russia_and_china_see_the_egyptian_revolution] Russia is back on the global strategic and economic map. It has transformed itself from a defunct military superpower into a new energy superpower. Energy revenues no longer support a massive military-industrial complex as they did in the Soviet period. Instead, new oil wealth has been turned more into butter than guns. And, after several years of economic growth, Russia has a new "soft power" role that extends far beyond its energy resources. Indeed, the penetrating forces of Russian power in Ukraine, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are no longer the Red Army. They are Russian natural gas and the giant gas monopoly Gazprom. They are also Russian culture, consumer goods, and job opportunities. A range of new Russian products, a burgeoning popular culture spread by satellite television, a growing film industry, rock music, Russian popular novels, a revival of the crowning achievements of the Russian artistic tradition, and new jobs in the service and other sectors have made Russia an increasingly attractive country for the region around it. Millions of people from the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the rest of Eurasia have flooded into Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other Russian cities in search of work and a better life. As a result, since 2000, Russia's greatest contribution to the security and stability of its vulnerable southern tier has not been through its military presence on bases, its troop deployments, or security pacts and arms sales. Rather, it has been through absorbing the surplus labor of regional states, providing markets for their goods, and transferring funds in the form of remittances (rather than foreign aid). Migration to Russia has become the region's safety valve. 164 Oil DDW 2012 1 Regional instability causes world war three Paris 2 [Roland Paris, assistant professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Colorado, Fall, 2002 “Kosovo and the Metaphor War”. Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 117, No. 3. Proquest] At this early stage in the Kosovo crisis, Clinton's language was still somewhat coded and suggestive; in the months to come, he would spell out the implications of his historical allusions with much greater clarity. Nevertheless, the phrase "powderkeg in the Balkans" would have carried historical significance for listeners who possessed even a casual knowledge of European history. Since the early part of th...
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