Moorse managing director of louis capital markets he

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Unformatted text preview: al carbon emissions by reducing consumption of fossil fuels constitute a nother potential threat to hydrocarbon exporters, but these remain distant concerns to producers. Coal-combustion contributes twice as muchto atmospheric carbon than does the burning of natural gas, while carbon from oil combustionfalls somewhere in the middle.10 Policies to combat global climate change will drive investment, production, income distribution, and security across fuels and energy suppliers in the future, but gas and oil will still be in demand as relatively less-polluting fuels compared to coal . 272 Oil DDW 2012 1 Export Economy Shift Inevitable 273 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 All oil-producing countries must inevitably transition from oil dependence John V. Mitchell, Associate Research Fellow at Chatham House and Research Adviser at the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. In November 2007 he received a lifetime achievement award for research from King Abdullah at the opening of the 3rd OPEC Summit in Riyadh, 08, [“Ending Dependence Hard Choices for Oil-Exporting States,” Chatham House Report, http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/108858] E. Liu A key conclusion of the report is that, because of their legacy of institutions, their demographic structure and skills, access to other natural and technical resources, and policy frameworks, countries vary greatly in their dependence on hydrocarbon exports. They differ also in their ability to replace oil tax revenues and foreign exchange earnings by diversifying their economies in future. In Part 2, the twelve countries are loosely grouped into four categories according to their stage of depletion and level of dependence on the hydrocarbons sector. These are: ‘near sustainable’ (Indonesia, Malaysia, Norway), ‘soon in transition’ (Algeria, Nigeria), ‘early dependence’ (Angola, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Timor-Leste) and ‘long-term depletion options’ (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran). While these groups are facing the challenges of depletion with varying levels of urgency, the report concludes that no country whose economy now depends on oil and gas exports can escape the eventual transition to lower dependence on hydrocarbons, which will involve a combination of: ? Domestic energy policy to restrain the growth of consumption and encourage the development of other fuels; ? More rapid growth of non-hydrocarbon sectors to pay taxes and generate exports (or reduce imports); ? Lower targets for economic growth. 274 Oil DDW 2012 1 Growth Causes Demand 275 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Economic recovery increases the rate of oil demand increase Moorse, Managing Director of Louis Capital Markets, 09 Edward L. Moorse, Managing Director of Louis Capital Markets. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Energy Policy in 1979-81 ,09 , [“Low and Behold Making the Most of Cheap Oil,” 88 Foreign Aff. 36 2009, http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page? handle=hein.journals/fora88&div=72&g_sent=1&collection=journals] E. Liu THERE ARE also surprising developments on the demand side, and the con...
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