Oil Independence

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Unformatted text preview: Policy Scenario’– accounting for already planned but not yet implemented climate policies – China’s consumption is projected almost to double between 2009 and 2035, to more than 15 mbd. Exhibiting even higher annual growth rates, India’s oil consumption is set to grow from 3.0 mbd to 7.5 mbd in the same period of time (IEA, 2010, p. 105). Yet, what makes life more difficult for OPEC is that it is uncertain at what pace change will occur, and what impact climate policies will have on the price of oil. Depending on the determination of China and other emerging powers to delink economic growth from oil consumption and decarbonize the transportation sector, demand will differ considerably two decades down the line. And depending on the success of emerging regional carbon reduction regimes and the degree to which they are effectively linked to each other, the price of carbon will vary, as will the price of oil. Both ‘wild cards’ will impact investment needs and timelines of planned upstream projects. Targeting price bands in oil effectively – a key goal OPEC has put forward with regard to oil market stability – will therefore prove more difficult than ever. 281 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Can’t Solve Oil – China 282 Oil DDW 2012 1 China’s oil trajectory displaces any US efforts to decrease oil dependence Yetiv, University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University and Fowler 11 Steve A. Yetiv, University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University and Eric S. Fowler, doctoral candidate in International Studies at Old Dominion University, 11, [“The Challenges of Decreasing Oil Consumption,” Political Science Quarterly Volume 126 Number 2 2011, www.psqonline.org/article.cfm?IDArticle=18738] E. Liu The finding of this study illuminates the basic problem of the tragedy of the commons. It demonstrates that even if the United States acted aggressively to deal with its own oil consumption, this would not prevent a potential tragedy of the commons. Indeed, the case of China—which is here treated as a unitary actor composed of the combination of the acts of its citizens and leaders—is telling. This study reveals that if China alone continued on its current consumption path, even in the face of major actions to change Americaʼs consumption habits, the world trajectory toward much higher oil consumption, with all of its attendant issues, would increase. And yet, it is unclear if even the United States will take truly dynamic measures to alter its course toward greater oil dependence. Against the backdrop of oil as a finite resource, such dynamics assume a more serious threat to the global commons, in fact, multiple threats to the commons— environmental, economic, and security. Put in other terms, individual efforts to address global oil dependence are positive, but the nature of the problem means that such efforts may have modest longer-run impact on lessening the problem, even when considering the individual effort of the largest user of oil—the United States. Moreover, as Marvin S. Soroos disc...
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This note was uploaded on 01/30/2013 for the course ECON 101 taught by Professor Burke during the Spring '13 term at Southern Arkansas University.

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