Yet there is no guarantee that emerging nuclear

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Unformatted text preview: ire special codes before the weapons can be armed. Yet there is no guarantee that emerging nuclear powers would be willing or able to implement these measures,creating a significant risk that their governments might lose control over the weapons or nuclear material and that nonstate actors could gain access to these items.Some states might seek to mitigate threats to their nuclear arsenals; for instance, they might hide their weapons. In that case, however, a single intelligence compromise could leave their weapons vulnerable to attack or theft. Meanwhile, states outside the Middle East could also be a source of instability.Throughout the Cold War,the United States and the Soviet Union were engaged in a nuclear arms race that other nations were essentially powerless to influence. In a multipolar nuclear Middle East, other nuclear powers and states with advanced military technology could influence— for good or ill—the military competition within the region by selling or transferring technologies that most local actors lack today: solid-fuel rocket motors, enhanced missile-guidance systems, warhead miniaturization technology,early warning systems,air and missile defenses. Such transfers could stabilize a fragile nuclear balance if the emerging nuclear powers acquired more survivable arsenals as a result. But they could also be highly destabilizing. If, for example, an outside power sought to curry favor with a potential client state or gain influence with a prospective ally, it might share with that state the technology it needed to enhance the accuracy of its missiles and thereby increase its ability to launch a disarming first strike against any adversary. The ability of existing nuclear powers and other technically advanced military states to shape the emerging nuclear competition in the Middle East could lead to a new Great Game,with unpredictable consequences 11 Last printed 9/4/2009 7:00:00 PM Oil DDW 2012 1 Russia 1NC 12 Oil DDW 2012 1 Oil prices are on the rise now – geopolitical tensions Rapoza ‘12 [Kenneth Rapoza, Contributor to forbes Covering Brazil, Russia, India & China. 1/28/12 http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/01/28/high-oil-prices-bode-well-for-russian-government/] High oil prices mean more cash flowing into the Russian government. The country is dependent on energy exports to keep its budget surplus in tact. Oil futures cracked $100 a barrel this week, before settling at $99.56 for the May contract for WTI crude. Still, prices like that bode well for Russia’s public coffers. International Monetary Fund’s Moscow representative, Odd Per Brekk, said in an interview with Russian newswire Ria Novosti that high oil prices actually opened a “window of opportunity” for the country to take measures to strengthen and protect its economy from the ongoing problems facing Europe, it’s biggest oil and gas customer. To take full advantage of this opportunity, Brekk said, the Russian government must undertake a complete economic transformation – keeping inflation at 3%-5%, cutting budget expenses, improving...
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