cs185C_S2_final_PartB_key.docx - FINAL EXAM u2013 CS185C...

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FINAL EXAM – CS185C SECTION 2, 12/16/2016 PART A COMPUTER SCIENCE DEPARTMENT, SJSU FALL 2016, INSTRUCTOR: KATERINA POTIKA KEY Section Points Question 1 ______Out of 22 Question 2 ______Out of 22 Question 3 ______Out of 15 Question 4 ______Out of 15 Total ______ Out of 103 Duration: 1:00. Good luck! QUESTION 1In this problem we will consider the information cascades model with specific values for the probabilities. Let’s suppose that the probability that Accept is a good idea is p = 1/2; and the probability of a High signal if Good is true (as well as the probability of a Low signal if Bad is true) is q = 3/4. Finally, let’s assume that Good is actually true. a.(6pts) What is the probability that the first person to decide will choose Accept; what’s the probability that this person will choose Reject? b.(12pts) What is the probability of observing each of the four possible pairs of choices by the first two people: (A,A), (A,R), (R,A), and (R,R)? [A pair of choices such as (A,R) means that the first person chose Accept and second person chose Reject.] c.(4pts) What is the probability of an Accept or a Reject cascade emerging with the decision by the third person to choose? Explain why a cascade emerges with this probability. Answer:

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