Envr301.7

Therefore upon hearing the beep i infer the area of

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Unformatted text preview: ly developing framework for using prior expectation plus evidence to “make bets”. o I have misplaced my phone somewhere in the home. I can use the phone locator on the base of the instrument to locate the phone and when I press the phone locator the phone starts beeping. Problem: Which area of my home should I search? o Frequentist Reasoning:  I can hear the phone beeping. I also have a mental model which helps me identify the area from which the sound is coming from. Therefore, upon hearing the beep, I infer the area of my home I must search to locate the phone. o Bayesian Reasoning:  I can hear the phone beeping. Now, apart from a mental model which helps me identify the area from which the sound is coming from, I also know the locations where I have misplaced the phone in the past. So, I combine my inferences using the beeps and my prior information about the locations I have...
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