Envr301.7

O two examples to illustrate these errors 1 the boy

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Unformatted text preview: population value is 0. o The alternative hypothesis proposes a substantial change, strong evidence for a genuine effect… o Reject null hypothesis if p< 0.05 (sign.) • Alpha & Beta Error o Alpha/Type I error: Reject a true null hypothesis. o Beta/Type II error: Fail to reject a false null hypothesis. o Two examples to illustrate these errors:  1. The boy who cried wolf • H0: there is no wolf • H1: there is a wolf • Type I error (alpha): No wolf, but the boy cries wolf • Type II error (beta): There is a wolf, but the villagers don’t believe the boy. The boy dies.  2. Murderer on trial • H0: Innocent • H1: Guilty • Type 1 error: Innocent person condemned • Type 2: Guilty person goes free • Frequentist vs. Bayesian o Frequentist statistics (t ­test, Chi ­square, F test, etc) was developed largely before computers & calculators. o Bayesian statistics is a rapid...
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