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hw2Solutions2013

# 9 0432 tf g m wd w2 pkg pfftf prm 06 x

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Unformatted text preview: F T 0.6*0.1 = 0.06 T F F 0.005*0.9 = 0.0045 Marginalize out R WD M P(WD=T|M) = ∑R P(WD=T,R|M) T T 0.49 + 0.15 = 0.64 T F 0.06 + 0.0045 = 0.0645 Join WD and M WD M P(WD=T,M|G=T) = P(WD=T|M)*P(M|G=T) T T 0.64*0.6 = 0.384 T F 0.0645*0.4 = 0.0258 Marginalize out M WD P(WD=T|G=T) = ∑MP(WD=T,M|G=T) T 0.384 + 0.0258 = 0.4098 P(WD=T|G=T) = 0.4098 (b) We know the TA passes an important exam (K = T) and starts attending lots of lunch seminars around campus (FF = T) but is still a powerless TA (R = F). From the following samples, estimate the probability of imminent World Domination (WD = T) using Likelihood Weighting. The weights represent the likelihood of the evidence (K, FF, R) given the other variables in the sample. TF, ¬G, ¬M, ¬WD W1 = P(K|¬G) P(FF|TF) P(¬R|¬M) = 0.6 x 0.8 x 0.9 = 0.432 ¬TF, ¬G, ¬M, ¬WD w2...
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