PSY 102 Chapter 1 Notes - Reading 1(January 26th The Need for Psychological Science Question for this Reading In what ways if any is hindsight bias

PSY 102 Chapter 1 Notes - Reading 1(January 26th The...

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Reading 1: (January 26 th ) The Need for Psychological Science Question for this Reading: In what ways, if any, is hindsight bias, beneficial for humans from an evolutionary standpoint? - Hindsight Bias: the “I -knew-it-all-along" phenomenon, where people are likely to say they knew something would happen, after the outcome already occurs. -Overconfidence: Humans tend to think they know more than they actually do -Guesses with 80 percent confidence tend to be correct less than 40 percent of the time -We also tend to perceive order in random events, when there really is no order (gambling) - The point to remember: Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events tempt us to overestimate our intuition. But scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from illusion. ‘ -The Scientific Method combines curiosity, skepticism, and humility. It Is a self-correcting process for evaluating ideas through observation and analysis. It welcomes hunches and plausible theories

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