Unformatted text preview: your threshold.
to it Call this your threshol
Compared the revealed number to you threshold. Just
assume that your threshold is between the two numbers. That is, you guess the unseen number is the smaller number
if your threshold is smaller than the revealed number;
And
And you guess the unseen number is the larger number if
your threshold is larger than the revealed number. Your winning chance is better than a 5050 guess! Why? NUS/FoS/DSAP 7 GEM2900  Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with
Probabilities (Continued)
Problem 2...
Case I: The numbers in my hands The threshold is larger than both numbers Case II: The threshold is smaller than both numbers
II Th th
th Case III: The threshold is between the two numbers NUS/FoS/DSAP 8 GEM2900  Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with
Probabilities (Continued)
Problem 3... Sons vs. Daughters
Daughters Consider a randomly chosen family with four children.
What is the most likely gender split? 04 or 13 or 22?
Assume chance of having a son or a daughter is equal. NUS/FoS/DSAP 9 GEM2900  Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with
Probabilities (Continued)
Problem 4... Birthday Problem – Part A n people entered the room and their birthdays are
recorded (ignore the year).
Q: NUS/FoS/DSAP What is the probability that at least two of them
share the same birthday? 10 GEM2900  Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with
Probabilities (Continued)
Problem 4... Birthday Problem – Part B Q. How large does a group of randomly selected people have
to be, such that the probability that at least two people
share the same birthday is larger than 0.5 NUS/FoS/DSAP 11 GEM2900  Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with
Probabilities (Continued)
Problem 5... Inverse Birthday Problem Q. How large does a group of randomly selected people have
to be, such that the probability that someone share his
or her birthday with you is larger than 0.5 √ The inverse birthday problem requires the sharing of a specific day
of birthday; whereas, the birthday problem allows any day to be
the shared birthday NUS/FoS/DSAP 12...
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 Fall '10
 CHEN
 Probability theory

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