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# And add 05 to it call this your threshold to it call

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Unformatted text preview: your threshold. to it Call this your threshol Compared the revealed number to you threshold. Just assume that your threshold is between the two numbers. That is, you guess the unseen number is the smaller number if your threshold is smaller than the revealed number; And And you guess the unseen number is the larger number if your threshold is larger than the revealed number. Your winning chance is better than a 50-50 guess! Why? NUS/FoS/DSAP 7 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with Probabilities (Continued) Problem 2... Case I: The numbers in my hands The threshold is larger than both numbers Case II: The threshold is smaller than both numbers II Th th th Case III: The threshold is between the two numbers NUS/FoS/DSAP 8 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with Probabilities (Continued) Problem 3... Sons vs. Daughters Daughters Consider a randomly chosen family with four children. What is the most likely gender split? 0-4 or 1-3 or 2-2? Assume chance of having a son or a daughter is equal. NUS/FoS/DSAP 9 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with Probabilities (Continued) Problem 4... Birthday Problem – Part A n people entered the room and their birthdays are recorded (ignore the year). Q: NUS/FoS/DSAP What is the probability that at least two of them share the same birthday? 10 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with Probabilities (Continued) Problem 4... Birthday Problem – Part B Q. How large does a group of randomly selected people have to be, such that the probability that at least two people share the same birthday is larger than 0.5 NUS/FoS/DSAP 11 GEM2900 - Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Semester 1, 2009/2010 How to Calculate with Probabilities (Continued) Problem 5... Inverse Birthday Problem Q. How large does a group of randomly selected people have to be, such that the probability that someone share his or her birthday with you is larger than 0.5 √ The inverse birthday problem requires the sharing of a specific day of birthday; whereas, the birthday problem allows any day to be the shared birthday NUS/FoS/DSAP 12...
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