2.16-2.23 - International Relations 2.16-2.23 We use models...

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International Relations 2.16-2.23 We use models to predict , not to look backwards Large Groups Assume people in these groups have some things in common -public opinion, American public, etc National character -“warlike” Germans Smaller groups Interest groups Even smaller groups “the elite” Organizations -bureaucracies, media groups -decision making group -political leader of country Most research on “groups” is confined 1) looks only to Western Countries 2) research done mostly after WWII Public opinion usually very poor, but sometimes they latch onto an issue -good example: Panama Canal -Reagan advocated giving it away in 1976 GOP primary race -politicians try to shape or shift public opinion w/ stump speeches -takes time to significantly affect public opinion “Rally around the Flag” -short term effect of public policy is to rally around the leader Cambodia is a good example -before invasion, 9% wanted invasion -after, 50% supported it Four things people look at regarding foreign policy 1) Peacekeeping a. Example of pub argument that leads to shoving; campus police will separate them, won’t care why they’re fighting, just want to stop fight b. American people are more supportive than otherwise if this is the case 2) Humanitarian a. More supportive here than with peacekeeping 3) Political change a. More supportive here than with Humanitarian
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4) Threat to U.S. interests a. More supportive here than with political change Americans averse to casualties and women tend to be more averse to use of force than men Prior to 1991 Gulf War, pollsters knew war was going to start -surveys indicated vast support for removing Hussein from Kuwait -support rises from about 60-80% after action is taken -this suggests that Pres. Bush 41 had about 20 point “rally” Prior to 2003 Iraq War -about 60% support invasion before war -about 77% approval after action is taken Perhaps biggest “rally around the flag/leader” gains came after 9/11 -about 55% approval rating before 9/11; pretty flat -6 weeks after 9/11, rating was almost 90% -again, public “rallied” around the President
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