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Unformatted text preview: the sophistication to simulate an array of scenarios, such as market-disrupting changes in technology. The final step in strategic workforce planning combines supply-and-demand calculations to determine the risk (the size of the shortfall or surplus) and its immediacy. Capacity risk may be quantitative (number of workers) or qualitative (competencies and qualifications of available workers). When spotted early enough, workforce shortfalls and surpluses can be addressed through a variety of measures, including recruitment, retention programs for critical job functions, cross-training programs within job families, job 1. For more information, see Rainer Strack, Jens Baier, and Anders Fahlander, “Managing Demographic Risk,” Harvard Business Review, February 2008. Exhibit 9. Basic Workforce Models Are Prevalent, but More Sophisticated Simulations Are Rarely Used Percentage of respondents in each subgroup Consider current job groups 72 Consider age of current workforce 62 47 Simulate new hires Have a supply model: 1 15% 42 Simulate retirement Derive workforce supply for the entire company by job Simulate attrition Simulate different scenarios 36 36 33 Consider current job groups Have a supply-anddemand model: 2 9% 70 Simulate different scenarios 53 Derive workforce demand for the entire company by job Simulate productivity increases 47 45 39 Simulate technology changes 77 Recruiting actions with quantified goals Derive actions from a supply-anddemand model: 3 6% 57 Qualification actions with quantified goals 53 Staff reductions Apprenticeship actions with quantified goals 47 Sources: Proprietary Web survey with 5,561 responses; 833 responses in this section; BCG/WFPMA analysis. 1 Subgroup is asked to further specify workforce supply model. 2 Subgroup is asked to further specify supply-and-demand model. 3 Subgroup is asked to further specify actions derived. transfers, and outsourcing. These measures require a long-term vision; for example, some specialized jobs require seven to ten years of training and certification. Very few companies are currently in a position to mitigate their capacity risk before a crisis occurs. Only 6 percent of the surveyed companies have implemented measures to address risks identified through modeling of future supply and demand. (For an example of a company that has, see the sidebar “Luhansa Technik: Mitigating Capacity Risk.”) How Far Out to Plan Strategic workforce planning links corporate strategy to HR strategy. But most companies do not take full advantage of this opportunity. Their time horizon for HR is much shorter—generally just one or two years—than their strategic horizon. (See Exhibit 10.) The most effective HR plans have a time horizon of at least four years. Planning ahead even further is difficult without the supply-and-demand models that most companies lack; even so, prospective planning of five or more years is considered more effective than using a shortsighted horizon of one or t...
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This document was uploaded on 09/30/2013.

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