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Unformatted text preview: the sophistication to simulate an array of scenarios,
such as market-disrupting changes in technology.
The ﬁnal step in strategic workforce planning combines
supply-and-demand calculations to determine the risk (the
size of the shortfall or surplus) and its immediacy. Capacity
risk may be quantitative (number of workers) or qualitative
(competencies and qualiﬁcations of available workers).
When spotted early enough, workforce shortfalls and surpluses can be addressed through a variety of measures,
including recruitment, retention programs for critical job
functions, cross-training programs within job families, job
1. For more information, see Rainer Strack, Jens Baier, and Anders
Fahlander, “Managing Demographic Risk,” Harvard Business Review,
February 2008. Exhibit 9. Basic Workforce Models Are Prevalent, but More Sophisticated Simulations Are
Percentage of respondents in each subgroup
Consider current job groups 72 Consider age of current workforce 62
47 Simulate new hires Have a
15% 42 Simulate retirement
Derive workforce supply for
the entire company by job
Simulate diﬀerent scenarios 36
33 Consider current job groups
9% 70 Simulate diﬀerent scenarios 53 Derive workforce demand for
the entire company by job
Simulate productivity increases 47
39 Simulate technology changes 77 Recruiting actions with quantiﬁed goals
6% 57 Qualiﬁcation actions with quantiﬁed goals
53 Staﬀ reductions
Apprenticeship actions with
quantiﬁed goals 47 Sources: Proprietary Web survey with 5,561 responses; 833 responses in this section; BCG/WFPMA analysis.
Subgroup is asked to further specify workforce supply model.
Subgroup is asked to further specify supply-and-demand model.
Subgroup is asked to further specify actions derived. transfers, and outsourcing. These measures require a
long-term vision; for example, some specialized jobs require seven to ten years of training and certiﬁcation.
Very few companies are currently in a position to mitigate their capacity risk before a crisis occurs. Only 6 percent of the surveyed companies have implemented
measures to address risks identiﬁed through modeling of
future supply and demand. (For an example of a company that has, see the sidebar “Luhansa Technik: Mitigating Capacity Risk.”) How Far Out to Plan
Strategic workforce planning links corporate strategy to
HR strategy. But most companies do not take full advantage of this opportunity. Their time horizon for HR is
much shorter—generally just one or two years—than
their strategic horizon. (See Exhibit 10.) The most eﬀective HR plans have a time horizon of at
least four years. Planning ahead even further is diﬃcult
without the supply-and-demand models that most companies lack; even so, prospective planning of ﬁve or more
years is considered more eﬀective than using a shortsighted horizon of one or t...
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This document was uploaded on 09/30/2013.
- Fall '13