Unformatted text preview: ng you take plane flights)
13 Exaggerating the Improbable
Which is safer: flying or driving? Odds of being killed Fatalities per on a single trip million trips
Airliner (Part 121) 0.019 52.6 million to 1 Automobile 0.130 7.6 million to 1 Commuter Airline (Part 135 scheduled) 1.72 581,395 to 1 Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification 19952004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995 2004 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Commuter Plane (Part 135 Air taxi on demand) 163,934 to 1 General Aviation (Part 91) 6.10
13.3 73,187 to 1 Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification 19952004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995 2004 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety 14
[from: http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm] Other Barriers to
15 The Confirmation Bias Confirmation Bias: The tendency to look for or pay attention only to information that confirms one’s own beliefs. E J 6 7 Test this rule: If a card has a vowel on one side, it has an even number on the other side.
Which 2 cards to turn over? 16
16 Biases Due to Mental Sets Mental Set: • A tendency to solve problems using procedures that worked before on similar problems.
• Help us solve most problems efficiently.
• Not helpful when a problem calls for fresh insights or a new approach.
• E.g., Your car has broken down. Last time this happened, you tried to start it 5 times and that worked. This time it doesn’t (something else is wrong). 17
17 The Nine-Dot Problem Connect all 9 dots
Use only 4 lines
Do not lift your pencil from the page after you begin drawing 18
18 The Hindsight Bias Hindsight Bias: • The tendency to overestimate one’s ability to have predicted an event once the outcome is known. • Also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon.
• “The older they get the better they were when they were younger.”
Jim Bouton, professional baseball player
• “I knew the Housing Bubble wouldn’t last”
• Danger = If you think it was easy to predict, you won’t learn from it 19
19 Need for Cognitive Consistency Cognitive Dissonance: • A state of tension that occurs when a person simultaneously holds two cognitions that are psychologically inconsistent, or when a person’s belief is inconsistent with his or her behavior. 20
20 Need for Cognitive Consistency Cognitive Dissonance: • “Those guys put me and the other guys through incredible hazing before they let us in here. They really tortured me and humiliated me. Why did I go through it?” Because I’m not too smart (Rejected)
Because I got caught up in what the group wanted and stopped thinking for myself (Rejected)
Because I know they did it for my own good (Accepted) • So, “I love this group – these guys are like brothers to me” Jones and Gerard (1967) Foundations of Social Psychology: John Wiley and Sons. 21
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- Fall '13
- Psychology, Cognitive Consistency