Lecture+IX+-+Thinking+and+Intelligence+Mar+21+2013

# Reasoning heuristic aruleofthumbthatsuggestsacourseof

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Unformatted text preview: ng you take plane flights) • http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon­july­ 15­2002/i­know­what­you­did­last­summer­of­ the­shark 13 13 Exaggerating the Improbable Which is safer: flying or driving? Odds of being killed Fatalities per on a single trip million trips Airliner (Part 121) 0.019 52.6 million to 1 Automobile 0.130 7.6 million to 1 Commuter Airline (Part 135 scheduled) 1.72 581,395 to 1 Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification 1995­2004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995­ 2004 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Commuter Plane (Part 135 ­ Air taxi on demand) 163,934 to 1 General Aviation (Part 91) 6.10 13.3 73,187 to 1 Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification 1995­2004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995­ 2004 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety 14 14 [from: http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm] Other Barriers to Other Reasoning Rationally Reasoning 15 15 The Confirmation Bias Confirmation Bias: The tendency to look for or pay attention only to information that confirms one’s own beliefs. E J 6 7 Test this rule: If a card has a vowel on one side, it has an even number on the other side. Which 2 cards to turn over? 16 16 Biases Due to Mental Sets Mental Set: • A tendency to solve problems using procedures that worked before on similar problems. • Help us solve most problems efficiently. • Not helpful when a problem calls for fresh insights or a new approach. • E.g., Your car has broken down. Last time this happened, you tried to start it 5 times and that worked. This time it doesn’t (something else is wrong). 17 17 The Nine-Dot Problem Connect all 9 dots Use only 4 lines Do not lift your pencil from the page after you begin drawing 18 18 The Hindsight Bias Hindsight Bias: • The tendency to overestimate one’s ability to have predicted an event once the outcome is known. • Also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon. • “The older they get the better they were when they were younger.” ­­Jim Bouton, professional baseball player • “I knew the Housing Bubble wouldn’t last” • Danger = If you think it was easy to predict, you won’t learn from it 19 19 Need for Cognitive Consistency Cognitive Dissonance: • A state of tension that occurs when a person simultaneously holds two cognitions that are psychologically inconsistent, or when a person’s belief is inconsistent with his or her behavior. 20 20 Need for Cognitive Consistency Cognitive Dissonance: • “Those guys put me and the other guys through incredible hazing before they let us in here. They really tortured me and humiliated me. Why did I go through it?” Because I’m not too smart (Rejected) Because I got caught up in what the group wanted and stopped thinking for myself (Rejected) Because I know they did it for my own good (Accepted) • So, “I love this group – these guys are like brothers to me” Jones and Gerard (1967) Foundations of Social Psychology: John Wiley and Sons. 21 21 N...
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