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HW17 Solutions - Chapter 10 Exchange Rate Determination and...

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Chapter 10 Exchange Rate Determination and Forecasting QUESTIONS 8. Describe how three macroeconomic fundamentals affect exchange rates. Answer: According to the monetary exchange rate model, the domestic currency weakens (strengthens) if the domestic (foreign) money supply increases today or if news arrives that leads people to believe that the future domestic (foreign) money supply will increase. The domestic currency also weakens if domestic real income falls, if foreign real income rises, or if news arrives that causes people to expect lower domestic real growth or faster foreign real growth. Finally, according to the equilibrium theory regarding the real exchange rate and the current account, an increase in government spending or a decrease in taxes that causes a budget deficit should increase the real exchange rate (and hence likely also the nominal exchange rate). This is because an increase in government spending increases aggregate demand in the economy, which causes the real interest rate to rise. The rise in the interest rate reduces investment and encourages private saving.
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