“Energy Perspectives 2019 Long – term macro and market outlook”, Equinor (2019).pdf

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Energy Perspectives 2019 Long-term macro and market outlook
W e l c o m e t o E q u i n o r s E n e r g y P e r s p e c t i v e s 2 0 1 9 I am frequently asked about my view on how the global energy system will develop, and even more frequently about where I think oil, gas, electricity and CO 2 prices will move over the short and long term. In Equinor we try to base our views on as many sources of information as possible, focusing on the potential effects of changes in market fundamentals and developments in technology, policy, resource availability and consumer behaviour. The future of energy is uncertain. And the question of how to respond does not have one single answer. Uncertainties call for the use of scenarios, describing how policy, technology and market conditions can move developments in very different directions, both desired and undesired. That is what Equinor’s Energy Perspectives 2019 aims to describe. It seems certain that demand for goods, services and activities that require energy in their production or consumption will continue to increase, driven by population growth and improved living standards. The challenge energy companies and the global society is faced with through the Paris Agreement (article 4.1) is formidable and unparalleled in human history: To sufficiently rapidly transform the global energy system “on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.” Equinor’s vision is to shape the future of energy. We are developing toward a broad energy company, producing oil and gas with lower emissions while building a strong position within new energy solutions. Our strategy is: Always safe, High value and Low carbon. To succeed, we must have a robust approach to the opportunities and challenges that come our way. The analysis in this report is important input to our strategic priorities, but does not reflect our views and strategy. We want the global energy mix to transform in a sustainable direction, and we want to take part in the shaping of such a future. With this 9 th edition of Energy Perspectives our analysts again provide important insight. The only certainty is the uncertainty of the future, and we do not claim to hold the truth. We welcome engagement and debate. I hope the report will be as useful to your work as it is to mine. Eldar Sætre President and CEO 3 Energy Perspectives 2019 Welcome to Equinor’s Energy Perspectives 2019
In what direction will global energy markets develop towards 2050? This is a crucially important question, not only for energy companies. The answer to this question will give profound signals on the chances of securing a sustainable development, as defined e.g. by the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Recent signals show that possible combinations of important drivers such as economic and demand growth, energy efficiency, climate policy cooperation, technology development and geopolitics could result in very different development paths for global energy markets over the next decades. This 9 th

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