63 64 there were no periods of negative per capita

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Unformatted text preview: amaica. The sample is representative of 95.2% of the population in Latin America, but representative of only 40% of the population in the Caribbean. This procedure differs from the data used in the regional aggregation module (i.e. the data from 1981‐2005) in that it does not include data from Guyana, Haiti, St Lucia, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. These countries together make up a small fraction of the total population in LAC. Data for 2007 and 2008 are projections. 97 Even with the break in the 1990s, the simple correlation between the LAC regional aggregates of per capita GDP and both extreme and moderate poverty rates is around ‐0.88. 56 The change in poverty rates and per capita GDP over the four distinct periods can be seen clearly in Table 1. Table 1. Changes in Poverty and Per Capita GDP in LAC over different episodes Episode GDP pc change 2 USD a day Poverty Change 4 USD a day Poverty change 1981‐1984 ‐2.88 1.16 1.35 1984‐1990 0.12 ‐1.03 ‐1.31 1990‐2002 1.03 ‐0.03 0.06 2002‐2006 2.88 ‐1.74 ‐2.55 2002‐2008* 3.01 ‐1.40 ‐2.16 Annex 2 presents similar graphs of the trends in poverty and growth in GDP per capita for other regions of the world. It is apparent that in no other region did one observe such a protracted period of significant growth in GDP per capita without a resulting decrease in poverty as was observed in Latin America during the 1990s. The aggregate figures are heavily affected by what happened in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, which make up 57.3 percent of the population of LAC. Figures 3‐4 present information on the behavior of per capita GDP growth and changes in poverty for the entire distribution of countries in Latin America. The box plots show the minimum and maximum values, and the values for the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles. The median value (50th percentile) is shown as a bar in the middle of the box. 57 Fig. 3. Distribution of Changes in Per Capita GDP in LAC Fig. 4. Distribution of Changes in Poverty in LAC (At $4 a day PPP) During the period 1981‐1984, virtually all countries experienced declines in per capita GDP and increases in poverty. Between 1984 and 1990, the growth in per capita GDP picked up to the point where the median value was slightly above zero. Poverty stopped increasing in most countries, but the median value of changes in the poverty rate was close to zero. The decline in poverty in the aggregate figures over this time period (Fig. 1 and 2) indicates that it was the larger countries that experienced declines in poverty. Over the 1990s there was a better performance in per capita GDP growth, but a very wide dispersion in the poverty results. It was not until 2002‐2008 when both the performance in per capita GDP growth and in poverty became strong across the entire distribution. 58 Evolution in the number of poor Table 2 illustrates changes in the number of poor 1981 and 2008. While there are six instances when extreme poverty and poverty rates declined (and 2 when they increased), there ar...
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