LAC_Policy_Notes

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Unformatted text preview: t, however the same is not true in the case of extreme poverty. Table A3.2: Poverty Elasticities using Splines (median regression) Extreme Poverty Moderate Poverty Full Without Argentina Full Without Argentina d_lngdppc: (.,0) ‐3.721*** ‐1.794*** ‐1.671*** ‐0.932*** (0.000) (0.011) (0.026) (0.000) d_lngdppc: (0,.) ‐2.559*** ‐3.578*** ‐1.916*** ‐2.020*** (0.000) (0.008) (0.021) (0.000) d_lngini3 ‐0.019*** ‐0.013*** ‐0.008*** ‐0.006*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Year ‐0.002*** ‐0.002*** 0.002*** 0.002*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Constant 3.346*** 4.306*** ‐3.775*** ‐3.152*** (0.000) (0.054) (0.140) (0.000) Obs. (unweighted) 107 102 96 91 Note: clustered standard errors; population weighted. Inference: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Annex 4. Estimates of Poverty Impact Using POVCALNET data and Elasticities calculated using POVCALNET data This annex presents tables similar to tables 5 and 6 in the text, but using POVCALNET data and elasticities calculated from POVCALNET data instead of the SEDLAC data and elasticities calculated from the SEDLAC data (Table A6.1). For this case moderate poverty corresponds to PPP $4 a day and extreme poverty corresponds to PPP $2 a day. The estimated impacts are lower than in the case of the estimates based on the SEDLAC data. This is due to lower estimated elasticities. It is probably the case that calculating poverty changes over a longer period results in less sensitivity to changes in per capita GDP. Table A4.1 Elasticities of Changes in Poverty Measure with changes in per capita GDP Poverty Line Region GDP per capita P value $ 2 a day PPP LAC ‐1.37 0.044 World ‐1.37 0.000 $ 4 a day PPP LAC ‐0.96 0.001 World ‐0.14 0.708 Note: (*) SEDLAC data; std errors clustered at country level; population weighted point estimates; controls: Log(Gini) and time trend. 77 Table A4.2. Poverty Impact of Slowdown in 2009 (4 US dollars a day PPP) Consensus Forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean* Mean Pessimistic Optimistic (4 US dollars a day PPP) Absolute change in incidence (pp) 0.31 0.58 ‐0.07 Percentage change in incidence (%) 2.40% 4.42% ‐0.55% Absolute change in number of poor (,000) 3,990.02 5,489.36 1,801.88 Percentage change number of poor (%) 2.20% 3.03% 0.99% (2 US dollars a day PPP) Absolute change in incidence (pp) 0.13 0.26 ‐0.08 Percentage change in incidence (%) 0.99% 1.99% ‐0.59% Absolute change in number of poor (,000) 1,631.77 2,370.05 453.30 Percentage change number of poor (%) 2.23% 3.23% 0.62% 78 Annex 5. GDP Growth Forecasts used in estimating the Poverty Impact of the Worldwide Recession 2007 * 2008 * Table A5.1 GDP Growth WB GDP WB GDP Growth Growth Forecast Forecasts 2009** 2009 ** (from (from WB IMF Forecasts WB GEP GEP 2009 2008) 2009) 4.70% 1.50% 0.00% 4.20% 3.58% 4.00% 4.50% 2.83% 1.80% 5.00% 3.45% 2.20% 4.80% 2.64% 2.00% 4.90% 3.92% 1.00% LAC Consensus Forecasts*** Mean Pessimistic Opptimistic Argentina 8.70% 6.60% ‐0.69% ‐3.80% 2.10% Bo...
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This document was uploaded on 11/14/2013.

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