It should be noted that towards

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Unformatted text preview: ios Distributivos , Laborales y Sociales ‐ Universidad de la Plata and the LAC region of the World Bank. 63 64 there were no periods of negative per capita GDP growth in the countries for which poverty data are available after 2003. Figure 9 captures multiple dimensions of the poverty response. The figure shows the beginning and end year for all periods of negative per capita GDP growth. The size of the bar shows the magnitude of the decline in per capita GDP and the color shows the change in poverty that occurred during the period of negative growth. Finally, the number under the bar indicates the number of years between the time when poverty stopped falling to when the poverty level recovered to the level of poverty that prevailed before the onset of the decline in per capita GDP. If poverty did not rise over the period of decline in per capita GDP, the recovery period is denoted as zero years. Table 3 summarizes some of the information from the observations in Figure 9.102 In this table, we divided the size of the GDP declines into ones that could be characterized as large, medium or small103. For each category of decline in per capita GDP, the table presents information on the average cumulative loss in per capita GDP and the average cumulative change in poverty over the period when per capita GDP fell. The table also presents the average number of years it took to recover to the level of poverty that prevailed before the crisis. Table 3. Effects on Poverty of GDP Shocks (Using data from 19 LAC countries over period 1981‐2006) Cumulative Loss in Per Capita GDP Large Medium Small (> 3 % loss) (Between 1.5 and 3 (Less than 1.5 percent percent loss) loss) Average cumulative loss in ‐7.2 ‐1.8 ‐0.6 per capita GDP Average cumulative 4.4 0.64104 ‐0.08 change in poverty rate Average years it takes to 3 3 1 recover poverty loss Countries with projected Ecuador (‐3.34%) Guatemala (‐1.62%) Colombia (‐.37 %) losses in per capita GDP Mexico (‐3.83%) Panama (‐0.8 %) Argentina (‐1.63%) for 2009 (Consensus Paraguay (1.82%) El Salvador (‐0.93 %) forecasts as of March, Chile (‐0.97 %) 2009) Nicaragua (‐1.09%) Honduras (‐1.14%) Brazil (‐1.25%) Dom. Rep. (‐1.42) 102 The data on poverty change and GDP per capita that underpin figure 9 are reported in Annex 4. This classification is based on the size of the cumulative loss in GDP and is not based on the length of the period of negative per capita GDP growth. The exact divisions are somewhat arbitrary, but were made in such a way as to correspond to some of the projected declines in per capita GDP that are forecast for 2009. 104 This average does not include Jamaica, which appears to be an outlier. The Jamaican experience has been a puzzle and is discussed in The Road to Sustained Growth in Jamaica, World Bank (2004) and Osei, P. (2002) , “A Critical Assessment of Jamaica’s National Poverty Eradication Programme”, Journal of International Development, Vol. 14, pp. 773‐88. 103 6 5 The average years to recover from a poverty loss are measured from the time when poverty stops increasing to the time when it recovers to the level that prevailed before the onset of...
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