Moreover several countries in lac habitually disburse

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Unformatted text preview: 2 20% 10% 1 0% Colombia Bolivia Chile Public wages Ecuador Argentina Interest payments Peru Mexico Brazil Venezuela 0 Argentina Social security and transfers Figure 11. Gross Capital Flows 12 Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Figure 12. Borrowing Costs: EMBI Sovereign spreads 3000 (% of GDP, 2005‐2008 Average ) (in basis points, 2007‐2008 Average ) 10 2500 8 6 2000 4 2 1500 0 1000 ‐2 ‐4 500 ‐6 ‐8 0 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela 106 Table 1 Fiscal Policy Reaction Function: Model with 2003 break in output gap and government debt Dependent variable: Fiscal indicator as % of GDP (FI) Method: Instrumental Variables Actual Government Revenues Primary Expenditure ‐0.109486 [0.100086] ‐0.10535 [0.101527] 0.006994 [0.004982] 0.020370*** [0.007432] 0.444984*** [0.106828] 17 272 ‐0.066482 [0.103084] ‐0.060685 [0.104511] ‐0.005468 [0.005668] 0.002222 [0.008076] 0.682914*** [0.092082] 17 272 0.209820** [0.106947] 0.211770* [0.108066] ‐0.009512* [0.005663] ‐0.012584 [0.008248] 0.845723*** [0.082748] 17 272 0.001678 [0.104136] 0.004452 [0.105610] 0.007275 [0.004824] 0.024904*** [0.007043] 0.437704*** [0.107885] 17 272 0.081457 [0.101633] 0.088687 [0.103208] ‐0.005738 [0.005672] 0.006603 [0.007985] 0.565476*** [0.084132] 17 272 0.249023** [0.104293] 0.251989** [0.105446] ‐0.008646 [0.005607] ‐0.012623 [0.008156] 0.844531*** [0.079674] 17 272 ‐0.181486*** [0.016243] ‐0.180441*** [0.016472] 0.00038 [0.001364] ‐0.002169 [0.002142] 0.161839*** [0.048194] 17 306 ‐0.246536*** [0.016112] ‐0.246137*** [0.016332] 0.000447 [0.001351] ‐0.000937 [0.002115] 0.113259*** [0.043339] 17 306 ‐0.060828*** [0.009430] ‐0.061561*** [0.009560] ‐0.0004 [0.000771] 0.000735 [0.001222] 0.244445*** [0.052917] 17 306 ‐0.037676 [0.164666] ‐0.023594 [0.168506] ‐0.000763 [0.014259] 0.008195 [0.014810] 0.134514 [0.198628] 7 112 ‐0.041078 [0.121295] ‐0.029414 [0.123204] ‐0.00989 [0.013865] ‐0.002954 [0.012530] 0.630896*** [0.106361] 7 112 0.196103 [0.164085] 0.200864 [0.166281] ‐0.001902 [0.018588] ‐0.005339 [0.016004] 0.749189*** [0.165117] 7 112 0.2348 [0.192193] 0.250227 [0.196760] 0.001669 [0.014380] 0.012009 [0.014901] 0.006668 [0.235915] 7 112 0.142881 [0.126647] 0.156735 [0.128824] ‐0.014657 [0.014638] 0.000133 [0.013349] 0.502029*** [0.103950] 7 112 0.254821 [0.158613] 0.261228 [0.160861] 0.002041 [0.018524] ‐0.00554 [0.016018] 0.788488*** [0.160556] 7 112 ‐0.208988*** [0.025564] ‐0.207845*** [0.026051] ‐0.004023 [0.003888] ‐0.005435 [0.004300] 0.138092* [0.071242] 7 126 ‐0.267301*** [0.024641] ‐0.267365*** [0.025102] ‐0.005303 [0.003745] ‐0.003938 [0.004132] 0.084851 [0.063592] 7 126 ‐0.053806*** [0.016643] ‐0.055178*** [0.016962] ‐0.001944 [0.002521] 0.001002 [0.002783] 0.282845*** [0.084087] 7 126 ‐0.144559 [0.129731] ‐0.144969 [0.131105] 0.008552* [0.005088] 0.026800*** [0.008710] 0.547577*** [0.120285] 10 160 ‐0.069438 [0.161922] ‐0.068222 [0.163918] ‐0.005486 [0.006830] 0.005217 [0.011281] 0.731633*** [0.175971] 10 160 0.145708 [0.135007] 0.14432 [0.136214] ‐0.013607** [0.005454] ‐0.013895 [0.009458] 0.894010*** [0.097688] 10 160 ‐0.133101 [0.128318] ‐0.135258 [0.129618] 0.009440* [0.004989] 0.031569*** [0.008181] 0.608808**...
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This document was uploaded on 11/14/2013.

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