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Unformatted text preview: ghuram, 1998, “The Past and Future of Commercial Banking Viewed Through an Incomplete Contract Lens”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 30, pp 524‐550. Rajan, Raghuram, 2005, “Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?” NBER Working Paper 11728 (November). Rajan, Raghuram, 2008a, “Bankers’ Pay is Deeply Flawed”, Financial Times, January 8. Rajan, Raghuram, 2008b, “A View of the Liquidity Crisis”, mimeo, University of Chicago. Santos, Manuel, and Michael Woodford, 1997, “Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles”, Econometrica, 65:19‐ 57. Schumpeter, Joseph, 1934, The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Press. Shiller, Robert, 2006, Irrational Exuberance, Princeton University Press. Shleifer, Andre, and Robert Vishny, 1997, “The Limits of Arbitrage”, Journal of Finance, 52:35‐55 Song, Fengshua, and Anjan Thakor, 2008, “Financial System Architecture and the Co‐evolution of Banks and Capital Markets”, Pennsylvania State University and Washington University (Mimeo). Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House. Tarullo, Daniel, 2008, Banking on Basel, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Veronesi, Pietro, and Luigi Zingales, 2008, “Paulson’s Gift”, Mimeo, University of Chicago. Weitzman, Martin, 2007, “Subjective Expectations and Asset‐Return Puzzles”, American Economic Review, 97(4): 1102‐1130. White, William, 2006, “Is Price Stability Enough?” BIS Working Paper 205 (April). 54 3. HOW HAS POVERTY EVOLVED IN LATIN AMERICA AND HOW IS IT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE ECONOMIC CRISIS? Joao Pedro Azevedo, Ezequiel Molina, John Newman, Eliana Rubiano and Jaime Saavedra June 2009 Abstract After establishing the recent history of what has happened to regional poverty in LAC, the note presents simulations of the potential poverty impact of the current crisis. A range of simulations are presented, drawing upon alternative specifications of the relation between per capita GDP growth and poverty and a range of estimates of how GDP per capita in different countries is expected to evolve in 2009. For almost all of the 1980s and 1990s, the number of poor and extreme poor in Latin America and the Caribbean rose. Despite the growth episodes observed in the nineties, poverty rates stagnated. The number of poor climbed from 160.5 million in 1981 to 240.6 million by 2002, and of extreme poor from 90 to 114 million. But since 2002 the number of poor has decreased at unprecedented speed – so much so that in 2008 the number of poor is estimated to have fallen to 181.3 million and the number of extreme poor to 73 million. That is, almost 60 million people moved out of poverty while 41 million left the ranks of the extreme poor. Unfortunately, the recent worldwide recession has put an end to that progress and the number of poor are now projected to increase. Based on GDP growth forecasts for May 2009, the aggregate poverty rate for LAC is estimated to rise 1.1 points. This...
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