Two models were estimated with two different

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Unformatted text preview: cases the World Bank GEP 2009 forecast was used, also on the three scenarios. 108 Similar tables of results are presented in Annex 4, using data from POVCALNET and elasticities estimated from POVCALNET data. 67 Table 5: Poverty Impact of Slowdown in 2009 (changes with respect to observed levels in 2008) Consensus Forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean* Mean Pessimist Optimistic Moderate Poverty 1.14 2.05 0.58 Absolute change in incidence (pp) 12.64% 22.79% 6.39% Percentage change in incidence (%) 8,325 13,491 5,144 Absolute change in number of poor (,000) 5.37% 8.70% 3.32% Percentage change number of poor (%) Extreme Poverty Absolute change in incidence (pp) 0.53 0.94 0.28 Percentage change in incidence (%) 5.87% 10.40% 3.06% Absolute change in number of poor (,000) 3,603 5,909 2,169 Percentage change number of poor (%) 7.16% 11.75% 4.31% Note: (*) Consensus Forecast as of May/2009 for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela.; For the countries in which theres was no Consensus Forecast esimates, the World Bank Forecast as of March 2009 was used; For the countries which Consensus Forecast did not report a minimum or a maximum value, the average reported value was used for both the optimistic and the pessimistic scenario. Countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela (90% of the region population covered by Povcalnet). Elasticities estimated using Sedlac data (17/nov/2008). 68 Table 6: Poverty Impact of Slowdown in 2009 (as compared to expected poverty levels had past growth rates continued) Consensus Forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean* Mean Pessimist Optimistic Moderate Poverty Absolute change in incidence (pp) 2.30 3.22 1.74 Percentage change in incidence (%) 8.66% 12.09% 6.54% Absolute change in number of poor (,000) 13,015 18,181 9,834 Percentage change number of poor (%) 8.66% 12.09% 6.54% Extreme Poverty Absolute change in incidence (pp) 1.07 1.48 0.82 Percentage change in incidence (%) 12.70% 17.52% 9.70% Absolute change in number of poor (,000) 6,075 8,381 4,641 Percentage change number of poor (%) 12.70% 17.52% 9.70% Note: (*) Consensus Forecast as of May/2009 for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela.; For the countries in which theres was no Consensus Forecast esimates, the World Bank Forecast as of March 2009 was used; For the countries which Consensus Forecast did not report a minimum or a maximum value, the average reported value was used for both the optimistic and the pessimistic scenario. Countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela (90% of the region population covered by Povcalnet). Elasticities estimated using Sedlac data (17/nov/2008). Figure 10. Trends in the Number and Projected Number of Poor in Latin America The aggregate data include actual and forecasted values for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colom...
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This document was uploaded on 11/14/2013.

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