chapter18

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Unformatted text preview: ent the projection observed temperature changes -*;.$ 65/0.62$ -,.$ -4&$ 0&'+.6-$ -*;.$ 6.)*.6$ D86*'+$ *':.9.':.'-$ of theaccount for anthropogenic contributions differently. substantial &5./'$-.;9.)/-8).$! onto the normalised model-based pattern of warming. They show $.0:6$D=&)$-,.$/7&>.$,./-$5&'-.'-$.6-*;/-.63$ models (PCM and HadCM3) warmed over the past basin-to-basin differences in how the oceans have which 5)*-.)*/$=&)$6.0.5-*&'2$Q8/0*-@$5&'-)&02$*'-.)9&0/-*&'$/':$/'/0@6*6$ uncertainty. The40 years, although all oceans have experiencedconfiwarming&76.)>/-*&'62$ red variability :&$ '&-$ blue crosshatched 68)=/5.$ -.;9.)/-8).$ DEE<3$ overofthat interval.internal bars represent *'508:.$ 6./$ swaths represent the 90% net dence limits the natural The the ±2 standard deviation limits associated with sampling Triangles mark predictions using only natural forcings. (source: IPCC report) strength. The green crosshatched swaths represent the range of the anthropogenically forced signal estimates from different realisations of identically forced simulations with the PCM model for each ocean basin (the smaller dots within the green swaths are the individual realisations) and the green shaded regions represent the range of anthropogenically forced signal estimates from different realisations of identically forced simulations with the PCM and HadCM3 models for the World Ocean (note that PCM and HadCM3 use different representations of anthropogenic forcing). The ensemble-averaged strength of the warming signal in four PCM simulations with solar and volcanic forcing is also shown (grey triangles). From Barnett et al. (2005) and Pierce et al. (2006). !"#$%#&$%'"#$!#()*%(+'",#)!-$%".%#&$%-&"(-$%".%(!! %**(!/%+$#&"0% (!% '"",*1% 2)+'*$0% ,$/("!2% 34,$/",1% $#% )*56% 7889:% ;-&<#)=)"% $#% )*56% 788>?6% #&$% -"!2(2#$!-1% ".% #&$% 0(..$,$!#*1%...
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This document was uploaded on 11/21/2013.

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