chapter18

4c between 1970 and 1990 the current trend is up obs

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Unformatted text preview: es Chapter 3 o global average temperature rose by 0.4°C between 1970 and 1990; the current trend is up • • 
 Obs 05#'*5FI$&"#$E"'(6#% '%$5#+#5$8*,-*$&-$'9-4 -4&$-*$#+#($'$%5,6"&$) 48?'*)$&*#()$%,(E#$& &",%$ ?'FI$ &"#$ -+#*'55 F#'*$ 8#*,-)$ J:;<=S =A:GD0A$05#'*5FI$&"#$ &-$ ,(E*#'%#$ %,(E#$ &"# %'7#$ ?'F$ '%$ ,($ &"#$ Figure 18.x Global annual combined land-surface air temperature and SST anomalies +,#?$ -.$ V#E&,-( U($ (ºC) for 1850 to 2006 relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean, along with 5 to 95% error bar 9F$ -E#'(I$ &"#$ ,("4# $ ranges. The smooth curve shows decadal variations. (source: IPCC report) #%&,7'&#)$ &-$ 9#$ +#*F >==BK$ (-?$ E-(&',($ : #'*5,#%&$ F#'*$ .-*$ ?", :GGB$,%$(-&$,($&",%$5, 3*)I$ C&"I$ <&"$ '()$ >( &"#$ ?'*7#%&$ ,($ /')0 -*)#*$ ,($ XUVV$ '()$ Y 10
 Chapter 3 Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change Figure 18.x Global annual mean observed temperatures along with trends to fit the data. The warming trend in the last 50 years (0.128ºC per decade) is three times larger than that over the last 150 years (0.045ºC per decade). Hence, warming is accelerating. (source: IPCC report) FAQ 3.1, Figure 1. (Top) Annual global mean observed temperatures1 (black dots) along with simple fits to the data. The left hand axis shows anomalies relative to the 1961 to 1990 average and the right hand axis shows the estimated actual temperature (°C). Linear trend fits to the last 25 (yellow), 50 (orange), 100 (purple) and 150 years (red) are shown, and correspond to 1981 to 2005, 1956 to 2005, 1906 to 2005, and 1856 to 2005, respectively. Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, indicating accelerated warming. The blue curve is a smoothed depiction to capture the decadal variations. To give an idea of whether the fluctuations are meaningful, decadal 5% to 95% (light grey) error ranges about that line are given (accordingly, annual values do exceed those limits). Results from climate models driven by estimated radiative forcings for the 20th...
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This document was uploaded on 11/21/2013.

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