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Unformatted text preview: ow shading represents the 5th to 95th percentile shaded bands represent the outcome ofA1Bmulations, withThe green bar denotes the 5th to 95th percentile range of si emissions scenario. and without anthropogenic forcings. range of projected changes according to the SRES (source: IPCC report) the 20th-century simulations with only natural forcings (i.e., a measure of the natural decadal variability). decadal mean anomalies from 
 For the observed part of these graphs, the decadal averages are centred on calendar decade boundaries (i.e., the last point is at 2000 for 1996 to 2005), whereas for the future period they are centred on calendar decade mid-points (i.e., the first point is at 2005 for 2001 to 2010). To construct the ranges, all simulations from the set of models involved were considered independent realisations of the possible evolution of the climate given the forcings applied. This involved 58 simulations from 14 models for the red curve, 19 simulations from 5 models (a subset of the 14) for the blue curve and green bar and 47 simulations from 18 models for the yellow curve. {FAQ 9.2.1, Figure 1 and Box 11.1, Figure 1} 15
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