chapter18

Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major

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Unformatted text preview: d AOGCM simulations forced with (a) both anthropogenic aforcings and (b) (b) natural forcings only. All data are shown as shown as global mean temperature anomalies nd natural forcings and natural forcings only. Data are global mean temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed relative to the average from 1901 to 1950. (source: IPCC report) (black, Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data Global Climate Projections Chap set (HadCRUT3); Brohan et al., 2006) and, in (a) as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 models with both anthropogenic and natural forcings. The multimodel ensemble mean is shown as a thick red curve and individual simulations are shown as thin yellow curves. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic &#$0)' %3)' ".' *$")&$#1' 6#&*#2*1*"7' 2)+.(),' ,(#11)& events. Those simulations that ended before 2005 were extended to 2005 by using -&#+"*.$'.-'"4)'()#$'E#&(*$0C'=4)'&#$0)'*,',.() the first few years of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B ,(#11)&'"4#$'"4)'&#$0)'.-'E#&(*$0'#"'"4)')$%'.-'"4) scenario simulations that continued from the respective 20th-century simulations, +)$"3&7'-.&'"4)'D;',+)$#&*.'*$'"4)'+.(/#&#21)'L*03& where available. The simulated global mean temperature anomalies in (b) are from 19 simulations produced by five models with natural forcings only. The multi-model .-'"4)'=D>8'%),/*")'"4)'1#&0)&'$3(2)&'.-'(.%)1,' ensemble mean is shown as a thick blue curve and individual simulations are shown M"4)' )$,)(21)' ()#$' E#&(*$0' *,' +.(/#&#21)8' UV as thin blue curves. Simulations are selected that do not exhibit excessive drift in *$'"4)'=D>'-.&';FX?'".';?FF'&)1#"*6)'".'?OR?'".'? their control simulations (no more than 0.2°C per century). Each simulation was #$%'UVC?VW9'4)&)'-.&';FHF'".';FO...
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This document was uploaded on 11/21/2013.

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