Lecture12

Inec2on points crossover causes rapid change eg enough

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Unformatted text preview: aw •  Devices per chip doubles every 18- 24 months •  Computer architects turn addi2onal resources into •  Speed •  Power savings •  Func2onality 16 Aug 2012 EE-717/EE-453@IITB 12 Performance Growth Unmatched by any other industry ! [John Crawford, Intel] •  Doubling every 18 months (1982- 1996): 800x –  Cars travel at 44,000 mph and get 16,000 mpg –  Air travel: LA to NY in 22 seconds (MACH 800) –  Wheat yield: 80,000 bushels per acre l༆  Doubling every 24 months (1971-1996): 9,000x –  Cars travel at 600,000 mph, get 150,000 mpg –  Air travel: LA to NY in 2 seconds (MACH 9,000) –  Wheat yield: 900,000 bushels per acre 16 Aug 2012 EE-717/EE-453@IITB 13 Technology Push •  Technology advances at varying rates –  E.g. DRAM capacity increases at 60%/year –  But DRAM speed only improves 10%/year –  Creates gap with processor frequency! •  Inflec2on points –  Crossover causes rapid change –  E.g. enough devices for mul2core processor (2001) •  Current issues causing an “inflec2on point” –  Power consump2on –  Reliability –  Variability 16 Aug 2012 EE-717/EE-453@IITB 14 Applica2on Pull •  Corollary to Moore’s Law: Cost halves every two years In a decade you can buy a computer for less than its sales tax today. –Jim Gray •  Computers cost- effec2ve for –  –  –  –  –  Na2onal security – weapons design Enterprise compu2ng – banking Departmental compu2ng – computer- aided design Personal computer – spreadsheets, email, web Mobile compu2ng – GPS, loca2on- aware, ubiquitous 16 Aug 2012 EE-717/EE-453@IITB 15 Applica2on Pull •  What about the future? –  E.g. weather forecas2ng computa2onal demand •  Must dream up applica2ons that are not cost- effec2ve today –  Virtual reality, telepresence –  Web agents, social networki...
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