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Unformatted text preview: (and therefore manageable) rise in average temperatures. Such events could include a substantial increase in global sea levels, intense
storms and hurricanes and continent-wide “dust bowl” effects. This would trigger pitched battles between the survivors of these
effects for access to food, water, habitable land and energy supplies. “Violence and disruption stemming from the stresses
created by abrupt changes in the climate pose a different type of threat to national security than we are accustomed to today,” the 2003 report
noted. Military confrontation may be triggered by a desperate need for natural resources such as energy, food and
water rather than by conflicts over ideology, religion or national honor.” Until now, this mode of analysis has failed to
command the attention of top American and British policymakers. For the most part, they insist that ideological and religious differences—
notably, the clash between values of tolerance and democracy on one hand and extremist forms of Islam on the other—remain the main drivers of
international conflict. But Reid’s speech at Chatham House suggests that a major shift i...
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