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Unformatted text preview: de decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as
states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources . Crises could potentially be the trigger for
decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states .4
Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a
strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write, The linkages
between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict,
which in tum returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts
self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg & Hess, 2002, p. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the
likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana,...
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