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those changes seem to have been overblown. Multipolarity — an international system marked by three or more roughly equally matched
major powers—did not return in the 1960s, 1970s, or early 1990s and each decline scare ended with the United States' position of primacy arguably strengthened. It is impossible to know for sure whether or not the scare is for real this
time—shifts in the distribution of power are notoriously hard to forecast. Barring geopolitical upheavals on the scale of Soviet
collapse, the inter-state scales of power tend to change slowly. The trick is to determine when subtle quantitative shifts will lead to a major
qualitative transformation of the basic structure of the international system. Fortunately, there are some simple rules of power analysis that can
help prevent wild fluctuations in response to current events. Unfortunately, arguments for multipolarity’s rapid return usually run afoul of them. A2: Impact Defense – Iran
Conflict with Iran will cause a global nuclear firestorm
Silver Donald Cameron (poli...
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