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Unformatted text preview: bottom-up, field-by-field analysis of most oil exploration and development projects in the world , this paper suggests
that an unrestricted, additional production (the level of production targeted by each single project, according to its
schedule, unadjusted for risk) of more than 49 million barrels per day of oil (crude oil and natural gas liquids, or
NGLs) is targeted for 2020, the equivalent of more than half the current world production capacity of 93 mbd. After
adjusting this substantial figure considering the risk factors affecting the actual accomplishment of the projects on a
country-by-country basis, the additional production that could come by 2020 is about 29 mbd. Factoring in depletion
rates of currently producing oilfields and their “reserve growth” (the estimated increases in crude oil, natural gas,
and natural gas liquids that could be added to existing reserves through extension, revision, improved recovery
efficiency, and the discovery of new pools or reservoirs), the net additional production capacity by 2020 could...
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