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Unformatted text preview: e late 1990s and has been on a largely downward trajectory since then, with traditional manufacturing
states hit particularly hard. Given its size and importance, we cannot ignore the consequences of such a decline. Economic decline causes great power wars—multiple studies
Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the US Dept. of Defense, 10 [Jedidiah, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crisis,” Economics of War
and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, 2010 p. 205-224]bg
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict . Political science
literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of
interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow.
First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms in...
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