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Unformatted text preview: 1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a
significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain
pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as
states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources . Crises could potentially be the trigger for
decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states .4 Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a
strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write, The linkages
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