tie4203-20-tut-03.pdf - TIE4203 Decision Analysis in Industrial Operations Management Tutorial#3 Question 1 P4.4 Dr Tan follows the rules of actional

tie4203-20-tut-03.pdf - TIE4203 Decision Analysis in...

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TIE4203 (2020) tut-03-1 TIE4203 Decision Analysis in Industrial & Operations Management Tutorial #3 Question 1 P4.4 Dr. Tan follows the rules of actional thought. He is an eminent brain surgeon. One day, he has a patient, Mr. Goh, who is unconscious. In considering medical procedures to use for Mr. Goh, he creates the following tree about state-of-the-art medical technology and its impact on patients. Since Mr. Goh is unconscious, Dr. Tan cannot assess his preference over the possible outcomes. One of the nurses suggests that Dr. Tan use the preference of a typical patient as he sees appropriate from his experience. The preference ordering Dr. Tan lays out is as follows, from the most preferred to the least preferred: OK, Severe pain, Loss of memory, Death. He pulls from his medical records a file on a recent patient in a very similar situation as Mr. Goh; he intends to use this patient’s preference in the preliminary analysis for Mr. Goh’s case. ( a ) According to the above information, what is Dr. Tan’s best decision? ( b ) Just as Dr. Tan is thinking about how to improve this decision, Mr. Goh regains consciousness. Mr. Goh, who also considers the rules of actional thought as his norm for decision making, starts reviewing Dr. Tan decision process. He agrees with Dr. Tan’s ordering and assessments, except that he feels memory is less valuable to him than Dr. Tan supposed. The following is Mr. Goh’s modified preference assessment What is Mr. Goh’s best decision? 0.2 Death Loss of memory OK Death 0.004 0.996 0.8 Operation A Life Severe pain 0.06 0.94 Operation B Death OK 0.01 0.99 New Drug C 0.999 0.001 OK Death Severe pain ~ 0.995 0.005 OK Death

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