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Something like this happens when a doctor sends a

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Unformatted text preview: bability that the man is an engineer, on average, people answer 50%. That is, most people forget the original fact that 30% of those in the room are engineers. They just assume that the room is split between engineers and lawyers. Something like this happens when a doctor sends a patient for a medical test for a disease on a “let’s rule it out” basis. In other words, the doctor does not see any specific symptoms, but wants the test done just to rule out one possibility. The disease affects 1 out of every 1000 people, and the test is 90% accurate. Now assume the test comes back positive. How likely is it that the test result is valid? Many doctors forget the low baseline rate of the disease, and assume that the result has a high likelihood of b...
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